The Tool Desk
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What the Mwache project is intended to do
The project is framed as a coastal water-security investment: its stated aim is to increase bulk-water supply to Mombasa and Kwale, while also supporting irrigation and climate resilience. The project website describes the water-supply objective for the two counties (Kenya Water Security and Climate Resilience Project).
Published capacity figures are not consistent. A 2025 Government Advertising Agency account described an 84-metre-high dam with 127 million cubic metres of storage; a September 2026 Water News Kenya report put designed storage at about 136 million cubic metres. Neither source explains the difference, so the figures should be treated as separately attributed reports rather than a settled specification (Government Advertising Agency, 3 April 2025; Water News Kenya, 10 September 2026).
Water News Kenya also reported a planned treated-water output of approximately 186,000 cubic metres per day. That is a daily flow figure, not reservoir storage, and should not be confused with the dam’s capacity.
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How far construction has progressed
Updates issued during 2026 report different overall completion percentages. They are dated snapshots from different publishers and may not use directly comparable measurement methods.
| Update | Reported progress |
|---|---|
| Ministry of Water inspection, 13 March 2026 | 72% overall; main dam 76%; lower check dam 84%; resettlement school infrastructure 98% (Ministry update). |
| Ministry committee visit, 5 May 2026 | 78% overall; main dam 83%; lower check dam 86%; clinic 82%; police post 65%; roads 34%; three relocated schools 98%; community water supply 17% (Ministry update). |
| Project website, July 2026 | 82.2% overall (Kenya Water Security and Climate Resilience Project). |
| Water News Kenya, 10 September 2026 | Above 85% overall; main dam 92% (report). |
These figures indicate substantial but unfinished construction, alongside supporting works that were at different stages in the May update. On 4 October, the Kenya News Agency reported that the government planned to accelerate completion and cited funding and resettlement challenges; that report did not give a new completion percentage or confirmed commissioning date (Kenya News Agency).
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What irrigation plans do—and do not—include
Irrigation is an intended benefit, but the proposed buildout should not be mistaken for infrastructure already approved, funded or operating. A 2025 Government Advertising Agency report said more than 6,000 acres were expected to be irrigated. In March 2026, a government procurement notice sought a feasibility study and preliminary design for a 2,000-hectare irrigation scheme around Mwache. It stated that development of the irrigation infrastructure was not covered by current World Bank funding and would be considered later in light of the study (Government of Kenya procurement notice, 10 March 2026).
The acreage and hectare figures come from different sources and stages of planning; the available accounts do not explain their relationship. The procurement notice establishes that a study and preliminary design were being sought, not that construction funding for the irrigation scheme had been secured.
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Land acquisition and resettlement are part of delivery
Construction includes obligations beyond the dam structure. The Ministry’s March update said stakeholders discussed compensation for land acquisition, livelihood-restoration programmes and replacement schools. In October, the Kenya News Agency cited resettlement challenges among factors affecting progress. These reports do not establish that all compensation or resettlement matters have been resolved.
The National Land Commission has said it is involved in land acquisition and compensation. Its chairperson, Dr Abdillahi Sagaaf Alawy, said the commission remained committed to facilitating acquisition, awards and fair compensation, and to protecting landowners’ rights (National Land Commission, 10 September 2026). The March and October accounts make clear that compensation and resettlement remain relevant implementation issues, rather than details that can be assumed complete.
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Cost and completion timing remain unsettled in published accounts
The title figure of Sh45 billion comes from the Kenya News Agency’s 4 October 2026 account. Earlier reporting gives a different figure: the Government Advertising Agency described the project as Sh20 billion in April 2025, as did a May 2026 Kenya News Agency account. The available reports do not explain whether the discrepancy reflects a change in scope, financing or reporting, so neither figure should be presented as a reconciled final cost.
The Government Advertising Agency projected operational status by February 2027 in its 2025 account. The October 2026 Kenya News Agency report called for accelerated completion but did not confirm a revised completion or commissioning date. February 2027 is therefore an earlier expectation, not a current confirmed schedule.
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