The U.S. construction outlook for the second half of 2026 is uneven: data-center and power-infrastructure work is supporting demand, while labor shortages, rising input costs and contractor uncertainty weigh on planning. Those are themes in Commerce Bank’s August 7, 2026 sponsored assessment—not a guarantee of how the rest of the year will unfold.
Where construction demand is strongest—and where it is concentrated
Commerce Bank’s assessment describes a market with clear pockets of growth rather than a uniform construction boom. It reports that data-center construction was up 28% year over year in April 2026, with roughly $50 billion in monthly spending. But data centers accounted for less than 7% of the nonresidential construction market, according to the article. The segment’s rapid growth therefore does not, by itself, show that demand is rising across the wider industry.
The longer-range figures point to a substantial infrastructure opportunity, though they remain forecasts and spending plans. Commerce Bank reports that PwC’s mid-year outlook forecast data-center capacity would triple by 2031, adding nearly 75 gigawatts of load. The article also cites nearly $1.4 trillion in investor-owned utility grid expansion budgets over five years. Data-center development can drive associated power generation, grid expansion and electrification work, but the cited figures do not establish how much of that activity will become construction contracts for any particular firm.
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Other indicators in the sponsored assessment are mixed. It says the Project Stress Index, attributed to ConstructConnect, fell 14.2% in May and 30.2% over the preceding 12 months. It also reports nearly 68,000 construction jobs added year over year through May 2026, with most of those additions in nonresidential construction. These measures describe different things—project stress and employment—and should not be treated as a single forecast of project starts or contractor revenue.
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The figures below are reported in Commerce Bank’s August 2026 sponsored article, which attributes some measures to other organizations. The underlying datasets and reports were not independently checked for this assessment, so treat the numbers as attributed context rather than a complete industry forecast.
| Indicator | Reported figure | Attribution and period |
|---|---|---|
| Data-center construction | Up 28% year over year; approximately $50 billion in monthly spending | Commerce Bank; April 2026 |
| Data centers’ share of nonresidential construction | Less than 7% | Commerce Bank; period not stated in the article |
| Project Stress Index | Down 14.2% for May and 30.2% over the preceding 12 months | ConstructConnect, as reported by Commerce Bank; 2026 |
| Construction employment | Nearly 68,000 jobs added year over year, most in nonresidential construction | Commerce Bank; through May 2026 |
| Nonresidential construction input prices | Up 1.8% in May and 8.4% year over year | Bureau of Labor Statistics data, as reported by Commerce Bank; 2026 |
| Contractor bid prices | Up 3.5% year over year | Commerce Bank; through May 2026 |
| Estimated new workers needed | 349,000 in 2026; 457,000 in 2027 | Associated Builders and Contractors, as reported by Commerce Bank |
| Potential unfilled skilled-trades positions | More than 2 million by 2030 | JLL, as reported by Commerce Bank |
| Data-center capacity forecast | Nearly 75 GW of added load as capacity triples | PwC mid-year outlook, as reported by Commerce Bank; by 2031 |
| Investor-owned utility grid expansion budgets | Nearly $1.4 trillion over five years | Commerce Bank; five-year period described in its 2026 article |
Why labor remains a constraint
Commerce Bank reports that Associated Builders and Contractors estimated the industry would need 349,000 new workers in 2026 and 457,000 in 2027. JLL, as cited by the bank, projected that more than two million skilled-trades positions could go unfilled by 2030. These are estimates and projections, not counts of current vacancies. The assessment also cautions that ABC’s workforce estimates can be noisy, so they are best read as an indication of recruiting pressure rather than a precise hiring tally.
The hiring challenge is not only about finding new workers. Firms also need to retain people between projects and build skills for work that is expanding. The article notes that more than 26% of the construction workforce was immigrant in 2024, citing the National Association of Home Builders. It also reports 1,032 construction workplace fatalities in 2024, citing the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Those figures frame workforce composition and safety as important parts of workforce planning; they do not explain the causes of hiring gaps or fatalities.
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Retention, training and recruitment
For contractors, the practical levers discussed in the assessment include keeping workers engaged between jobs, using internships to develop a pipeline and investing in training programs. Commerce Bank also describes an ABC and Meta training initiative for data-center construction technicians. Such programs may help align skills with emerging demand, but the article does not quantify their reach or establish how quickly they can ease broader shortages.
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How rising costs can affect bids and margins
The assessment reports that nonresidential construction input prices rose 1.8% in May 2026 and 8.4% year over year, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics data cited by Commerce Bank. Contractor bid prices rose 3.5% year over year through May, according to the bank. The difference between those reported year-over-year rates is a warning sign: if a contractor cannot adjust a price already offered or recover added costs through the contract, some increases may land on its margin. It does not prove that every contractor is absorbing the same share or that the two measures cover identical project inputs and timing.
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Contract and cash-flow practices to consider
- Review bids and commitments regularly. Revisit assumptions about labor, materials, timing and project scope before committing to work with uncertain costs.
- Understand price-adjustment terms. Escalation clauses may set out how specified cost changes are handled. Their availability and effect depend on the agreement and applicable law.
- Assess contract structure against risk. Cost-plus arrangements can allocate cost risk differently from fixed-price work; neither is automatically suitable for every project or customer.
- Protect billing cadence. Timely, accurate billing can help a firm track and manage cash needs as project costs change.
These are business considerations, not legal advice. Contractors should review the actual contract language with qualified advisers rather than assuming a clause or contract type will protect a particular margin.
How to choose a response that fits the firm
Commerce Bank’s recommendations distinguish firms with different financial positions and exposures. The right response depends on whether a contractor can carry inventory, how vulnerable its projects are to cost swings, whether it can retain and recruit workers, and how dependent its pipeline is on one fast-growing market.
- When liquidity is tight or costs are volatile: The article recommends conservative bidding and delaying commitments that would add uncertainty. Its advice is to be selective both about bid assumptions and the work pursued.
- When liquidity is available: Strategic purchasing or diversification may be options, provided the firm can manage the cash tied up and the risks of the new work or inventory.
- When a pipeline depends heavily on data centers: Evaluate the related power, grid and electrification opportunities while recognizing that data centers are still a limited share of nonresidential construction in the cited figures.
- When staffing is the bottleneck: Prioritize retention and training alongside recruiting; winning more work without enough qualified labor can create delivery pressure.
These are source recommendations, not universal prescriptions. A firm’s backlog, contract terms, balance sheet and local labor market determine whether waiting, bidding selectively or expanding capacity is prudent.
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The assessment raises fuel-efficient and multi-fuel machinery as possible equipment considerations, along with autonomous equipment still in development. It also points to AI-enabled cameras, drones and predictive analytics as tools being considered for jobsite safety. The article does not establish that emerging systems are mature or guaranteed to prevent accidents. They should be evaluated as possible additions to a safety program, not substitutes for qualified oversight and established safety practices.
Quick Recap
Before committing capital, contractors can compare the equipment’s expected use against project demand, financing capacity, operating costs and the possibility that work is delayed. Firms with sufficient liquidity may have more room to purchase strategically; others may be better served by waiting. Commerce Bank’s assessment also describes federal tax provisions that it says raised the Section 179 expensing limit to $2.5 million, set a $4 million phase-out threshold and restored 100% bonus depreciation under the 2025 federal tax and spending bill. These are tax-sensitive claims from the sponsored article; confirm current eligibility and treatment with official IRS guidance or a tax professional before relying on them for a purchase decision.
How to read this mid-year outlook
Commerce Bank’s article is sponsored content, and its outlook is a snapshot published August 7, 2026. Its figures and forecasts point to a construction market where infrastructure demand and employment gains coexist with concentrated growth, labor constraints and cost pressure. The estimates can help contractors frame scenarios, but they do not establish what any individual firm will win, pay or earn in the second half of the year.
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