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Bettesworth Construction
Commercial Real Estate

What Office Construction Means for Commercial Tenants in 2026

The U.S. office pipeline is near a historic low, but construction affects tenants unevenly. Local availability, building quality, and lease timing matter more than national totals.

By Bettesworth Construction Team 11 min read
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For U.S. commercial tenants, the latest evidence does not show a broad office-construction boom. In 2025, office demolitions and conversions outpaced new completions, and the U.S. pipeline stood at 19.7 million square feet in Cushman & Wakefield’s Q2 2026 update, which called it near a historic low. What matters to a tenant is not the national total alone: local vacancies, competing buildings, delivery dates, and the quality of the space determine whether new construction expands choice or leaves the best options scarce.

Is office construction actually rising?

Not across the United States as a whole, according to the current reports cited here. CBRE says that in 2025, removals of office inventory through demolition and conversion exceeded new completions for the first time since it began tracking in 1988. New supply declined enough to contribute to the first year-over-year fall in U.S. office vacancy in more than five years, even though net absorption—space leased or occupied minus space vacated—was 14% below its 30-year average. CBRE’s U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook 2026 therefore describes a market where shrinking supply and subdued absorption occurred at the same time.

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The active pipeline is also small by recent historical standards. Cushman & Wakefield reported 19.7 million square feet of U.S. office space under construction in Q2 2026 and characterized the pipeline as near its historic low. Its U.S. office update says demand continues to favor higher-quality buildings, with attention to employee experience, location, and amenities.

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These national measures are context, not a prediction for any one lease. Construction can increase choice when projects deliver in the tenant’s own submarket and meet its requirements. A small national pipeline does not show how much suitable space is available nearby, while a new tower in another city—or a building aimed at a different type of occupier—may have little bearing on a tenant’s options.

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It also helps to distinguish the construction pipeline from available space. A project under construction is not necessarily ready for a tenant to occupy today; its expected delivery must match the tenant’s decision and move schedule. Conversely, a market with little new construction may still have substantial existing vacancy. A headline about construction alone cannot answer whether a tenant will have a useful choice at the right time.

Other U.S. snapshots use different measures

Newmark’s Q1 2026 U.S. report recorded 4.5 million square feet of net absorption, 20.2% vacancy, and construction at a 14-year low. The report describes recovery as uneven across markets and asset classes. Those figures are Newmark’s Q1 2026 measures, not values to splice into CBRE’s or Cushman & Wakefield’s series: providers may define markets, inventory, vacancy, and construction differently.

Read these as separate, dated snapshots rather than competing answers to a single national question. Vacancy describes space available under a provider’s definition; net absorption reflects the balance of occupied or leased space and space vacated over a period; construction measures space being built. Each can move differently. For example, removals can reduce inventory even when leasing activity is subdued, while demand for a narrow set of premium buildings can coexist with vacancies elsewhere. The reported figures help frame the market, but do not replace a local availability check.

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Why local conditions matter more than the national total

Office markets differ in leasing momentum, rents, occupancy, and construction. Cresa’s 2026 North American Office Market Index compares the 100 largest markets by institutional-quality office inventory using 11 metrics across those four categories. In its framework, elevated vacancy, excess availability, or slower leasing can give occupiers greater leverage; diversified industries, resilient demand, and a healthier balance between supply and occupancy tend to strengthen a market. Cresa’s index explains its measures and market framing, but a market-level score cannot guarantee a particular rent or concession in an individual building.

The index is useful as a reminder to investigate several conditions together, not as a lease-pricing calculator. A market’s leasing momentum may be strong while certain submarkets or buildings still have excess availability. Likewise, a market-level indication of tenant leverage does not mean every landlord will offer the same terms. The tenant’s size, timing, location requirements, desired quality, and actual competing options determine which broad conditions are relevant to a specific negotiation.

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For a tenant, the useful questions are narrower: Is there comparable space in the precise submarket? Is it available when the current lease expires? Are competing landlords struggling to lease, or are good buildings filling quickly? Does the new space actually fit the company’s location, size, layout, and amenity needs? Those answers are more actionable than whether a national construction number rose or fell.

How construction can affect a tenant’s negotiating position

More suitable competing space can create leverage

When newly completed buildings add viable options in the same submarket, tenants may be able to compare more landlords and negotiate from a stronger position. The same can be true when existing space is plentiful or leasing is slow. Cresa identifies elevated vacancy, excess availability, and slower leasing as conditions associated with greater occupier leverage. That relationship does not establish a standard rent reduction: the result depends on the building, the lease, timing, and competing offers.

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For leverage to be meaningful, alternatives need to be real substitutes. A space that is too small, in the wrong location, unavailable before lease expiry, or lacking required amenities may not give a tenant a credible second option. Make a shortlist of buildings that fit the actual brief, then compare their availability and timing. If few options meet the requirements, a large amount of market-wide vacancy may not translate into much bargaining power for that tenant.

A thin pipeline can make prime space harder to secure

When few projects are underway, tenants may have fewer chances to move into new, high-quality space as leases expire. Cushman & Wakefield says demand is favoring buildings that emphasize employee experience, location, and amenities. If many tenants want the same kind of space, limited construction may intensify competition for it even while less desirable buildings continue to offer alternatives.

That does not mean every tenant should rush to lease new construction. A future building has to be evaluated against currently available space and the tenant’s timing. Compare when it is expected to be delivered with the required occupancy date, and verify the proposed space and terms against the tenant’s needs. Delivery timing and quality are considerations; they do not establish a universal advantage or cost saving for new buildings.

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Building quality can divide the market

CBRE describes occupiers as focused on higher-quality assets, while many lower-quality properties still offer significant tenant leverage. That means a market can have a tight supply of attractive, well-located offices and a large amount of less competitive space at the same time. “Available” is not the same as “suitable”: assess each building’s condition, location, amenities, and fit rather than treating every vacant square foot as a direct substitute.

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This quality divide changes how tenants should read vacancy statistics. A broad vacancy rate may include space that does not compete for a particular tenant’s requirements. A tenant prioritizing a well-located building and a strong employee experience should compare that narrower set of options, not assume that all vacant offices will constrain the landlord of a preferred property. At the same time, a tenant open to a wider range of buildings may be able to use weaker demand in some assets to explore alternatives.

CBRE forecasts that prime vacancy will return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2027. That is the firm’s forecast, not a confirmed outcome or a guarantee for every city. The report also says annual leasing activity is expected to surpass 2019 levels; it is a CBRE report statement, not a personal quotation from an individual researcher.

How to compare buildings and lease offers

Compare actual alternatives on the same basis. A project that appears cheaper on headline rent may not be the better choice once timing, fit-out responsibilities, concessions, and lease length are considered. The market reports identify location, quality, amenities, rent, occupancy, and construction as relevant dimensions; the precise economics must come from the lease proposals and building information.

A practical comparison starts with the tenant’s own brief, not with a market headline. Record the target submarket, access needs, required space, desired building qualities, and the date the space must be available. Use the same criteria for every alternative. This separates genuine alternatives from properties that look attractive in a listing but cannot meet the tenant’s operational or timing needs.

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What to compare Questions to ask
Submarket and access How does the location work for employees, clients, and transit? Are the competing buildings genuinely in the same area and convenient for the same workforce?
Building quality and condition What is the state of the building and its shared spaces? Do its amenities and overall experience meet the company’s needs?
Space and timing How much space is available now? If it is under construction, when is delivery expected, and does that schedule match the lease expiry or planned move?
Lease economics What are the quoted rent, concessions, fit-out obligations, and other stated costs? Compare the offers using their actual terms rather than assuming construction creates a particular saving.
Term and flexibility How long is the commitment, and how does the lease term align with the tenant’s plans and current expiry date?
Local competition What competing vacancies are available, and how quickly is comparable space leasing in the submarket?

Then check that the offers are being compared consistently. A quoted rent on its own is not a complete account of lease economics: record the concessions and fit-out obligations stated in each proposal, as well as the lease term and expected availability. The cited reports do not provide a formula for converting these terms into a total cost, so tenants should use the actual lease documents and locally specific advice rather than applying a generic construction-related discount.

A tenant deciding whether to renew or relocate should also account for the time needed to evaluate alternatives. If a prospective building is not yet complete, delivery risk and the gap between the expected handover and lease expiry can matter as much as the asking rent. Seek locally specific leasing advice when the decision involves substantial commitments or construction and fit-out details; national market indicators cannot substitute for reviewing the actual space and lease terms.

Tenant-representation or office-leasing advisory services may be useful when a renewal or relocation requires local comparisons across submarkets, buildings, and proposals. This is a category of professional help, not an endorsement of a particular provider. The key value is market- and lease-specific guidance: a national report cannot tell a tenant whether a particular building’s availability, timing, and terms fit its needs.

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Why national construction figures do not predict tenant savings

The cited reports establish broad market conditions, not an individual tenant’s total occupancy cost. They do not quantify how a particular construction project changes that tenant’s rent, concessions, fit-out expense, moving costs, or operating costs. Nor do they support a fixed discount or universal decline in office rents. Treat any projected savings as a claim to verify against local comparable offers and the full proposed lease economics.

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Keep geography, period, and provider attached to figures. CBRE’s U.S. 2025 removals and vacancy observations, Cushman & Wakefield’s Q2 2026 pipeline, and Newmark’s Q1 2026 vacancy and absorption are separate snapshots. They are useful for understanding direction and context, but their measures should not be combined as if they formed a single, consistently defined time series.

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That caution also applies to comparisons across countries. A market with a thin pipeline could face pressure on prime space, while a different market with more excess availability could give tenants more options. Neither result should be assumed for a city or building without local evidence. The cited reports do not supply figures for an unspecified tenant’s city, so the next step is to check local inventory, vacancy, leasing momentum, project delivery dates, and the actual competing spaces.

A UK comparison shows why geography changes the outlook

The U.S. picture should not be generalized to other countries. CBRE’s UK outlook reports 8.0 million square feet of unlet office space under construction at the end of 2025 and projects that a scarcity of new prime space will contribute to rent growth. That is CBRE’s UK-specific projection, not a forecast for the United States or any individual city. It illustrates how a limited supply of desirable new buildings can put pressure on prime rents even as tenants in other locations or lower-quality assets retain negotiating leverage.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is office construction increasing across the U.S. in 2026?

The evidence cited here does not show a broad U.S. construction boom. CBRE reports that removals through demolition and conversion exceeded new completions in 2025 for the first time since its tracking began in 1988. Cushman & Wakefield reported 19.7 million square feet under construction in Q2 2026 and called the pipeline near a historic low. Local conditions can differ substantially.

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Does more office construction automatically mean lower rent for tenants?

No. The cited reports support the possibility that more suitable competing space, elevated vacancy, or slower leasing can improve occupier leverage, but they do not establish a fixed discount or universal rent decline. The impact depends on the tenant’s submarket, timing, building quality, actual alternatives, and lease terms.

How can a tenant tell whether new construction will help its negotiation?

Check whether the project is in the tenant’s actual submarket, suits its location and building requirements, and will be available when needed. Compare it with existing alternatives, including their quality, amenities, availability, rent, quoted concessions, fit-out obligations, and lease terms. A national pipeline figure alone cannot establish that a project is a viable substitute.

Why can prime office space become more competitive while tenants still have leverage elsewhere?

Demand can concentrate in higher-quality, well-located buildings with sought-after amenities, while lesser-quality properties continue to have excess availability. CBRE describes this quality divide in the U.S. market. As a separate UK example, CBRE reports 8.0 million square feet of unlet office space under construction at the end of 2025 and projects rent pressure for prime space; that UK outlook is not a U.S. forecast.

The Bottom Line

For commercial tenants, rising construction matters only when it produces suitable, timely alternatives in the relevant local market. The U.S. evidence reviewed points to a small pipeline and a split between sought-after prime buildings and weaker assets—not a simple nationwide rent story. Compare submarkets, building quality, availability, delivery dates, and the full terms of actual lease offers before treating construction as leverage or a source of savings.

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