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The often-cited forecast that Western Australia would be short about 22,000 homes was an estimate made in 2022, not a current projection. It compared a forecast need for 78,000 homes over four years with an expected 56,000 homes built at the construction rate then reported. That four-year period has now passed, and the estimate covered WA—not Perth alone.
Where the 22,000-home figure came from
In a report published on 25 May 2022, PerthNow attributed the estimate to the Real Estate Institute of Western Australia (REIWA). REIWA said WA would need 78,000 homes over the following four years, while the build rate at the time was expected to produce 56,000. The difference was about 22,000 homes. The report also described an existing shortfall of about 8,000 homes.
Those were estimates for the state, despite the headline’s reference to Perth. They were tied to the assumptions and construction conditions prevailing in 2022. The four-year forecast horizon ended in 2026, so neither number should be presented as today’s measured shortage or forecast. PerthNow’s 2022 report is the source for the original figures.
What recent construction figures show
The latest indicators in the cited Western Australian Government release use different measures of activity. The figures below are statewide and draw on Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data; they do not represent a single count of homes delivered over one common period.
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| Measure | Reported figure | What it counts |
|---|---|---|
| Dwelling commencements | 24,223 in the year to March quarter 2026; up 15.2% year on year | Homes whose construction began during the period |
| Dwellings under construction | 26,741 in the March quarter 2026 | Homes still in the construction pipeline at that point |
| Completions | 5,052 in the March quarter 2026; up 10.8% on the previous quarter | Homes completed during that quarter |
| Homes built since September quarter 2024 | More than 37,300 through the March quarter 2026 | Government-reported cumulative completions; described as 82.6% of WA’s pro-rata National Housing Accord target for that period |
The distinctions matter. A commencement is a start, not a finished home; a dwelling under construction is still in progress; and an approval indicates permission to build, not that construction has begun. The government says the increase in commencements is expected to lead to more completions in coming quarters. That is its outlook, not a completed-homes count. See the Government of Western Australia’s July 2026 release for the reported indicators and attribution.
Approvals and announced investment are not completed homes
The 2026–27 WA State Budget page reports 25,050 homes approved over the year to February 2026. Approvals are an earlier stage of the supply process, so that figure should not be compared directly with completions. The budget also announces $4.7 billion in housing investment for the budget and more than $10.8 billion in additional housing investment since 2021. These are government investment and program figures, not a tally of homes already delivered.
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The announced measures include $1.3 billion for land development, including DevelopmentWA and enabling power and water infrastructure, alongside social and affordable housing initiatives, first-home-buyer support, construction workforce programs, and regional housing. Their effect on completed supply depends on delivery over time. Details are on the 2026–27 WA State Budget page.
Why the current shortage cannot be read from one construction number
High starts or completions provide evidence of construction activity, but they do not, on their own, establish whether WA has enough homes or whether affordability pressures have eased. Answering that requires a clearly defined measure of need and supply for the same geography and period, as well as assumptions such as population growth and demolitions. The figures cited here do not provide a harmonized current estimate of the state’s housing deficit.
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- Geography: distinguish Perth from all of WA. The 22,000 estimate was statewide.
- Time period: separate the 2022 four-year forecast from observed figures reported through March 2026.
- Construction stage: do not substitute approvals, commencements, homes under construction, and completions for one another.
- Type of claim: identify whether a number is an industry estimate, an observed statistical count, a government target, or an announced program.
How to read competing claims about housing supply
Political statements about annual completions should be checked against the underlying ABS series and compared over the same reporting periods. An Opposition Alliance WA release dated 8 October 2026 presents a comparison between completions in 2025–26 and 2015–16. Its figures and interpretation are political claims; the cited material does not establish that they are directly comparable with the government’s March-quarter indicators. The release’s numbers should not be treated as an independently verified trend without checking the relevant ABS data. The Opposition Alliance WA release states its position.
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