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UK construction is facing a split outlook: reforms could create substantial regional work, but falling output and orders, renewed material inflation and constrained delivery capacity make projects harder to build. That is the conclusion of Mace Consult’s UK Market View: Q3 2026, published on 22 October 2026.
Ceri Evans, Mace Consult’s Global Director for Cost and Commercial Management, describes a market in which “opportunity and delivery risk are moving in parallel”. Devolution, planning reform and a lower public-sector appraisal discount rate may improve the pipeline, but announcements become construction only when funding, planning, capable organisations, realistic programmes and disciplined commercial decisions are in place.
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What does “opportunity and risk moving in parallel” mean for UK construction?
Mace Consult is describing two simultaneous realities. Government reforms may expand the number of projects that can be proposed, while current market data shows fewer projects progressing through the construction pipeline and higher costs for those that do.
The distinction matters for clients and local authorities. A policy commitment is not the same as an approved, funded project with a site programme. Mace says policy ambition alone will not put work on site; delivery depends on funding certainty, local capability, planning speed, programme management and coordination between central and regional government.
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Mace Consult became independent from Mace Group after a carve-out on 5 March 2026. Its Q3 2026 view uses official data and presents the following market conditions.
What do the latest UK construction figures show?
The market indicators point to contracting activity alongside rising input pressure.
| Measure | Latest result | Qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Construction output | Down 1.0% | Three months to August 2026; output was 1.6% below the same period a year earlier, using ONS data. |
| All new work | Down 5.0% | Previous 12 months, using ONS data. |
| New orders | Down 11.8% | Q2 2026; the third consecutive quarterly fall, using ONS data. |
| Construction-material prices | Up 6.4% | Year on year in August 2026, the highest rate since March 2023, using ONS and Department for Business and Trade data. |
| Regular construction earnings | Up 0.3% | Year on year, using ONS data. |
Materials are especially exposed to oil, gas, fuel and transport costs. Mace links the August increase to petrol and gas prices reaching their highest levels since 2022. Weak demand therefore has not translated into a broad fall in project costs: contractors still face energy-sensitive inputs while competing for a smaller volume of work.
Why are UK construction orders falling while tender prices stay high?
Lower demand can intensify competition, but it does not remove cost risk. Contractors have limited ability to absorb energy and material increases, and a company with spare capacity may submit an unusually low bid simply to secure work.
Mace’s average tender-price inflation forecasts remain positive even as orders weaken:
| Market | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National real estate | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| National infrastructure | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| London | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
These are Mace Consult’s 2026 average forecasts, not guaranteed prices for an individual scheme. Procurement route, project type, location, specification, programme and risk allocation can produce materially different results. Infrastructure is forecast to face the strongest sustained tender-price pressure in the table.
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Clients should test a tender against the contractor’s capacity, scope coverage, inflation assumptions and delivery plan. Headline price alone can conceal omissions, unrealistic productivity assumptions or a business trying to buy workload ahead of future cost increases.
Can devolution and planning reform create more construction work?
They can improve the conditions for a pipeline, but they do not guarantee starts. Mace expects devolution to give local leaders more influence over housing, transport, regeneration, skills and public services, allowing investment to reflect regional priorities.
Planning and appraisal changes
Changes to the National Planning Policy Framework are intended to support suitable housing near well-connected transport links. The government’s public-sector discount rate has also fallen from 3.5% to 3.0%. A lower rate increases the present value assigned to benefits that arrive over many years, which can make long-term schemes easier to approve in appraisal; it does not provide construction cash by itself.
Transport spending is geographically uneven
Mace cites Institute for Fiscal Studies figures showing average transport capital spending of £415 per person across the UK in 2024/25, compared with more than £800 per person in London. The gap cannot be treated as a simple regional league table: London’s rail network has unusually high usage, and reallocating funds raises equalisation and network-function questions.
The fiscal constraint
Devolution also transfers responsibility into a system that remains heavily dependent on central funding. An OECD comparison cited by Mace puts locally raised council-tax and business-rate revenue at under 20% of UK subnational revenue, versus an OECD average of 34%. More than 60% of UK subnational revenue came from grants and subsidies, compared with an OECD average of 40%.
Without dependable local revenue, a project pipeline and delivery teams, additional powers can shift accountability faster than they create buildable work. Mace says visible construction effects may not emerge until the 2030s because policy implementation, approvals and mobilisation take time.
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Which construction sectors are weakest or strongest?
Housing is the largest drag on current new-work performance, while infrastructure and private commercial work provide more resilient signals.
| Sector or measure | Change | What it indicates |
|---|---|---|
| Private-housing output | Down 6.1% | Major contributor to the overall slowdown. |
| Public-housing output | Down 27.9% | The sharpest fall among the housing categories reported by Mace. |
| Housing contribution | About two-thirds | Share of the 5.0% reduction in all new work. |
| Infrastructure output | Down 0.1% year on year; up 3.7% over three months | Near-flat annual performance with recent short-term growth. |
| Private commercial output | Up 1.6% year on year | The only new-work segment to grow annually in Mace’s comparison. |
| Public non-housing orders | Down 22.0% | Weak future workload signal in Q2 2026. |
| Infrastructure orders | Down 5.1% | Another Q2 2026 pipeline warning. |
Housing supply remains far below the level often discussed in national policy. Mace records 171,520 UK home completions in 2025; the country has not exceeded 300,000 completions in a single year since 1977. The gap illustrates why planning reform may create substantial potential demand while financing, land, infrastructure and delivery capacity remain decisive.
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How should councils and clients manage construction delivery risk?
Mace and Ceri Evans’s recommendations can be converted into a practical sequence before procurement.
- Secure committed funding. Distinguish an announced allocation or policy objective from money that is legally available for the scheme and its full delivery period.
- Build a realistic programme. Allow time for planning, design development, approvals, procurement, mobilisation and constrained supply chains instead of treating the construction start date as immediate.
- Check delivery capability. Assess whether the authority, client team and proposed governance have the skills and resources to manage the project through design, procurement and construction.
- Carry out supply-chain due diligence. Test subcontractor availability, key-material exposure, geographic capacity, financial resilience and dependencies on a small number of suppliers.
- Engage commercial advisers early. Decide scope, packaging, risk ownership, inflation treatment and contract strategy before those choices become expensive to change.
- Interrogate every tender. Compare the price with the defined scope, programme, capacity evidence and inflation allowances. Refresh market testing when order books, energy prices or materials markets move.
These controls are particularly important when falling orders encourage aggressive bidding. A competitive market can create value, but only if the bid remains deliverable after foreseeable cost and programme risks are recognised.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What does the independent BCIS outlook add?
BCIS’s 8 October 2026 forecast provides a separate cost context: building costs are projected to rise 14% over five years and tender prices just over 14% to Q3 2031. It forecasts new-work output contracting 3.7% in 2026 before growing 2.2% in 2027.
The BCIS figures are not a replacement for a project-specific estimate. They reinforce the need to distinguish economy-wide averages from a scheme’s location, design, procurement route, start date and exposure to volatile materials.
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What should the market watch next?
The most useful test of the opportunity is whether reforms produce funded projects that pass planning, appoint capable teams and reach site. In the meantime, output, new orders, energy-sensitive materials, local-government funding and the credibility of tender assumptions will show whether pipeline potential is turning into construction activity.
Mace’s central warning is therefore conditional rather than pessimistic: policy can widen opportunity, but delivery discipline determines which projects survive the gap between announcement and completion.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a lower public-sector discount rate pay for a project?
No. It changes how future benefits are valued in an appraisal, which can improve a scheme’s case, but the client still needs an identified funding source, approvals and a delivery organisation.
Why should London’s transport spending not be used as a simple benchmark for other regions?
Per-person spending reflects London’s exceptionally intensive rail use as well as funding choices. Comparing the figures without accounting for network demand and equalisation can produce misleading conclusions about regional need.
Is 0.3% construction-earnings growth a measure of total build-cost inflation?
No. It is a regular-earnings measure for construction employees. Materials, energy, transport, subcontractor prices and financing can move very differently, so the figure should not be used as a project cost forecast.
When could devolution show up in construction output data?
Mace expects noticeable effects may not appear until the 2030s. New powers must be followed by funding decisions, planning, procurement and mobilisation before they affect measured output.
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