Off-highway electrification is forecast to expand through 2035, but there is no single comparable global valuation for the complete electric-vehicle market in the available estimates. Interact Analysis projects battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) will make up 44% of off-highway vehicle units in 2035, up from 33% in 2025. Adoption is uneven: material handling is the largest current BEV foothold, while reported electric construction equipment sales are heavily concentrated in China. For mining, the fit depends on the duty cycle and site conditions—not simply on the sector.
What does the off-highway vehicle market forecast say through 2035?
Interact Analysis’s 2026 forecast covers the broader off-highway vehicle market, including construction, agriculture and forestry, material handling, and mining. It forecasts 7.8 million off-highway vehicle units in 2030, with average annual growth of 5.3% from 2025. That is a forecast for all off-highway vehicle units—not a count or valuation of electric vehicles alone.
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The same forecast projects a rising BEV share of off-highway units between 2025 and 2035. Its figures are rounded, so the BEV and internal-combustion-engine (ICE) shares shown below do not add to 100% in either year.
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|---|---|---|
| BEV | 33% | 44% |
| ICE | 66% | 55% |
These are Interact Analysis projections, not reported sales results. They indicate a forecast shift in the overall mix; they do not mean every equipment category or region will reach the same electric share.
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How big is the electric construction equipment market?
Off-Highway Research’s 2026 estimate measures electric construction equipment sales, a narrower market than the full off-highway vehicle forecast. It forecasts 74,803 electric construction equipment sales globally in 2030, with sales value close to US$10 billion. Those figures should not be substituted for the total off-highway EV market: the estimates cover different equipment boundaries and measures.
The available figures do not establish one comparable global valuation for complete off-highway electric vehicles in 2035. A report on electric-vehicle components, for example, would measure parts of the market rather than complete vehicles. When comparing forecasts, check whether the number refers to units, sales value, BEV share, construction equipment, or components, as well as the forecast year and geography.
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Where is electric construction equipment adoption concentrated?
Off-Highway Research reports that China accounted for 85% of global electric construction equipment purchased in 2025. Within China’s reported electric equipment sales that year, mid-to-large wheeled loaders made up 84%. The source associates those loaders primarily with mining, quarrying, and industrial applications.
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This concentration matters when interpreting global growth: a strong sales mix in one country and equipment class does not demonstrate equally broad adoption across construction markets or vehicle types. It also provides a concrete connection between electrification and mining-related work, but not proof that mining alone is driving the broader off-highway forecast.
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Which applications are likely to electrify first?
Application, machine size, geography, and work pattern all shape the opportunity. Interact Analysis says current BEV activity is concentrated overwhelmingly in material handling. Its analyst Chloe Mason describes the nearer growth frontiers as compact urban construction in Western markets and large machines in China. That is the analyst’s characterization of the market, rather than a universal rule for every region or equipment class.
Interact Analysis also expects agriculture and material handling together to account for 83% of all off-highway vehicle units by 2035. That is a forecast about the composition of the overall vehicle market; it is not a claim that these two applications will account for 83% of electric sales. The forecast therefore does not support attributing all off-highway electrification growth to construction and mining.
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When does battery-electric equipment make sense in mining?
Mining suitability is site-specific. Komatsu’s 2025 white paper identifies haul-route length, route grade, loading practices, and site power availability as factors affecting battery-electric truck effectiveness. Shorter haul cycles and opportunities to integrate onsite renewable power can be favorable conditions, but a favorable factor by itself does not establish that a particular fleet conversion will work.
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- Haul distance and cycle: Compare route length and cycle pattern with the equipment’s intended operating needs; shorter haul cycles may be more favorable.
- Grade: Include route grades in the site assessment, rather than assuming that results on one haul road transfer to another.
- Loading practices: Consider how the truck is loaded and operated as part of the real work cycle.
- Power availability: Assess whether the site can supply the required power and whether onsite renewable integration is practical.
These factors make mine-level assessment more useful than a blanket claim that battery-electric trucks are—or are not—suitable for mining. The cited evidence does not establish a universal economic threshold or a return on investment for every operation.
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How should readers compare forecasts?
Before using a market figure for planning or investment, identify exactly what it measures. The broad vehicle-unit forecast, electric construction equipment sales forecast, and BEV-share projection answer different questions.
| Forecast measure | What it tells you | What it does not tell you |
|---|---|---|
| All off-highway vehicle units | Projected scale and growth of the broader vehicle market | The number or value of electric vehicles alone |
| Electric construction equipment sales | Forecast sales within the source’s electric construction equipment scope | The complete off-highway EV market across all applications |
| BEV share of off-highway units | Projected powertrain mix across the broader vehicle scope | Equal adoption by region, machine class, or application |
| Electric-vehicle component market | Forecast activity for components within the report’s scope | Sales or value of complete electric vehicles |
Interact Analysis’s broader forecast and Off-Highway Research’s electric construction equipment figures can be read together as evidence of market direction, but not combined into a single market-size number. Their scopes differ, and the available estimates do not provide a like-for-like 2035 global valuation for complete off-highway electric vehicles.
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