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Holcim expects Europe’s construction market to remain mixed in 2027: infrastructure is the clearest source of support, while residential building depends heavily on interest rates and national conditions. The company sees limited momentum in the UK but healthier activity in parts of Eastern and Western Europe. Independent forecasts also point to an uneven, gradual recovery—not a Europe-wide boom.
What did Holcim say about European construction in 2027?
After Holcim’s third-quarter earnings, CEO Miljan Gutovic told Reuters on 23 October 2026: “Europe will still be mixed bag. I’m not expecting anything major in the UK for next year, but I think in Eastern Europe, in some parts of Western Europe, we will see healthy momentum.”
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He identified the divide between publicly supported projects and private housing as a central issue: “I think infrastructure will continue. The question mark is residential. Residential is obviously correlated to interest rates.” These comments describe direction and sensitivity; Holcim has not provided a single Europe-wide 2027 construction-volume target or a country-by-country forecast.
Which construction segments look strongest?
Infrastructure and civil engineering
Infrastructure is the clearest support in the outlook. Holcim expects spending to continue, and its first-half 2026 results described demand supported by investment in Central and Eastern European roads, tunnels and airports. Publicly funded transport, energy and water projects also helped make civil engineering the strongest and most resilient construction segment in 2025, according to FIEC’s 2026 report. FIEC expects it to remain an important growth driver in 2026.
Cement Europe’s 2025 Statistics Report forecasts 2.1% civil-engineering growth in 2027. ING Research says infrastructure is less exposed to economic fluctuations because it relies substantially on local and national government investment; energy-transition spending, power grids and digital infrastructure are among its demand sources.
Residential construction
Housing is the largest uncertainty because new schemes are sensitive to mortgage affordability, developer financing and interest rates. ING Research reported that EU permits for new houses were up 26% year on year by September 2025, and expects residential activity to improve in 2026 and 2027. However, permits remained below 2021 levels, so the increase is a recovery signal rather than evidence that construction has returned to its earlier peak.
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Holcim’s first-half 2026 release cited positive residential-permit momentum in France, Germany and Poland. That supports a cautious recovery case in those markets, not an assumption of a uniform European housing rebound.
Non-residential building and renovation
Non-residential activity is not moving as one market: ING says office construction remains under pressure, while healthcare, education and renovation benefit from public investment and energy-efficiency requirements. Renovation can support activity without depending as much on finding and permitting new development sites. The evidence points to a stabilizing role, not a claim that every type of renovation is accelerating.
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How do the 2027 forecasts differ by country?
ING Research’s 2026 outlook puts forecast construction-output growth at 2.0% for the EU in 2027, but its country estimates range from 1.0% to 3.0%. These are ING forecasts, not Holcim guidance.
| Market | 2027 outlook in the cited evidence |
|---|---|
| Germany | 3.0% construction-output growth forecast (ING Research, 2026 outlook) |
| Poland | 2.0% construction-output growth forecast (ING Research, 2026 outlook) |
| Spain | 2.0% construction-output growth forecast (ING Research, 2026 outlook) |
| France | 1.0% construction-output growth forecast; weak confidence is a headwind (ING Research, 2026 outlook) |
| Netherlands | 1.0% construction-output growth forecast; land, permitting, grid and nitrogen-related bottlenecks are concerns (ING Research, 2026 outlook) |
| United Kingdom | Holcim CEO Miljan Gutovic said he did not expect anything major in 2027; no percentage forecast was stated |
| Eastern Europe | Holcim expects healthy momentum in parts of the region; no single regional percentage was stated |
These figures are best read as evidence of geographic divergence, not as a ranking of every project or sub-sector in each country. A market’s mix of infrastructure, housing and renovation—and its ability to turn funding and permits into active projects—matters alongside the national forecast.
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How does the outlook compare with recent EU construction figures?
Recent figures underline why a forecasted recovery should be treated as gradual. FIEC’s 2026 Statistical Report records consecutive declines in EU construction investment before its forecast rebound. Its investment measure and ING’s construction-output forecast are different measures, so they should not be combined into one growth series.
| Measure | Figure | Source and period |
|---|---|---|
| EU construction investment | Down 2.5% | FIEC, 2026 Statistical Report, 2024 |
| EU construction investment | Down 2.1% | FIEC, 2026 Statistical Report, 2025 |
| EU construction investment | Forecast growth of 2.7% | FIEC, 2026 Statistical Report, 2026 forecast |
| EU construction output | Forecast growth of 2.0% | ING Research, 2026 outlook, 2027 forecast |
| EU civil engineering | Forecast growth of 2.1% | Cement Europe, 2025 Statistics Report, 2027 forecast |
Holcim’s own results provide a company-specific indicator, not a measure of total construction activity: it reported Europe net sales of CHF 4,383 million for the first half of 2026, up 2.8% organically year on year. The release also described decarbonized cement, circular aggregates and energy-efficient building systems as core offerings alongside its demand commentary.
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What could slow or derail the recovery?
FIEC identifies financing conditions, public-investment capacity, implementation of EU funds, energy and material costs, administrative procedures and labour availability as factors shaping how durable the recovery will be. These constraints affect different projects in different ways: higher financing costs can delay private housing, while bottlenecks in public funding or delivery can hold up infrastructure even when demand and budgets exist.
- Financing: Higher-for-longer interest rates or weak private financing could delay residential schemes.
- Project delivery: Slow EU-fund implementation, permitting complexity and limited public-investment capacity can postpone work.
- Site and utility constraints: Land shortages, grid congestion and local regulatory obstacles can restrict development; ING cites nitrogen-related bottlenecks in the Netherlands.
- Inputs and workforce: Energy and material costs, along with labour shortages, can pressure project economics and schedules.
The practical signal to watch is whether announced investment and improving permit indicators translate into projects that are financed, approved and built. The available forecasts do not establish that these delivery constraints will ease everywhere at the same pace.
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Does a rise in housing permits mean more homes have already been built?
No. A permit indicates that a project may proceed through a regulatory step; it does not confirm that financing is secured, construction has started or a home has been completed. Delays or cancellations can still widen the gap between permits and delivered housing.
Are ING’s country forecasts Holcim’s own predictions?
No. The country percentages are attributed to ING Research’s 2026 outlook. Holcim’s public comments describe its view of regional momentum and the relationship between infrastructure, housing and interest rates, rather than numerical forecasts for individual countries.
Why can construction investment and construction output show different growth rates?
They are distinct measures and can cover different aspects of activity; they should not be treated as interchangeable or added together. FIEC’s cited figures concern investment, while ING’s figures concern construction output.
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