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Goldman Sachs’ 22 October 2026 European building-materials view favors Sika and Rockwool, not because it expects a broad construction rebound, but because their market positions may help them retain price increases as costs change. The view rests on pricing power and supply discipline; it is conditional, especially for Rockwool, whose earnings are exposed to elevated gas and electricity prices. Goldman’s forecasts were already below consensus across much of the sector.
Why does Goldman Sachs prefer Sika and Rockwool?
The common case is relative resilience in price-cost dynamics ahead of first-quarter 2027 pricing. Goldman sees European heavyside markets supported by capacity constraints and CO₂-related supply discipline, while Sika’s specialized construction-chemicals position and Rockwool’s category leadership may support price realization. The report does not make the pair a bet on an imminent, broad-based EU construction recovery. Goldman Sachs’ 22 October 2026 view
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Goldman forecast more than 10% upside to 2027E EBITDA versus Visible Alpha consensus for each company. It also said both shares traded more than one standard deviation below their own 10-year average P/E multiples. These are report-dated estimates and relative valuation observations, not guarantees of earnings growth or future share-price returns.
What is different about Sika and Rockwool?
Sika is the specialized construction-chemicals case; Rockwool is the category-leadership case. That difference matters because the companies face distinct input-cost and demand exposures even when both can benefit from pricing discipline.
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| Factor | Sika | Rockwool |
|---|---|---|
| Pricing rationale in Goldman’s view | Specialized construction-chemicals position supports price realization. | Category leadership supports price realization. |
| Energy and input sensitivity | Goldman’s current summary does not quantify specific energy exposure. | Explicit downside if gas and power remain elevated; the March 2026 Goldman report said about half of energy came from met coal. |
| Goldman’s 2027E EBITDA comparison | More than 10% upside versus Visible Alpha consensus, per Goldman’s 2026 view. | More than 10% upside versus Visible Alpha consensus, per Goldman’s 2026 view. |
| Valuation context | More than one standard deviation below its 10-year average P/E in Goldman’s 2026 view; a separate March 2026 report described it as 35% below that average. | More than one standard deviation below its 10-year average P/E in Goldman’s 2026 view. |
| Key qualification | Pricing power does not remove exposure to construction demand or execution. | Elevated gas and power could reduce earnings despite pricing support. |
Is this a construction-recovery trade or a pricing trade?
It is primarily a pricing and margin-resilience thesis, with demand still a material risk. UBS’s 16 January 2026 outlook said the multi-year European construction slump was not over, while arguing that infrastructure and pricing could continue to support heavyside outperformance. It also cautioned that lightside stocks need a European construction recovery it did not expect. UBS Research, 16 January 2026
That distinction is important for construction-materials businesses: pricing and constrained supply may support profitability even when volumes are weak, but they cannot guarantee growth if projects stall or customers reduce purchases. UBS estimated that the average EU lightside company had about 70% exposure to residential and non-residential construction, leaving many such businesses sensitive to a broad recovery. Its view is a sector-level qualification, not a company-specific exposure figure for Sika or Rockwool.
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How could energy and carbon costs affect the picks?
Rockwool has the clearest quantified energy downside in Goldman’s current view. If gas and power stay elevated, Goldman estimated low-to-mid-single-digit downside to Rockwool’s fourth-quarter 2026 base-case EBITDA. The size and duration of energy-price changes therefore matter alongside whether the company can pass costs through.
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Goldman’s March 2026 report said about half of Rockwool’s energy came from met coal, and reported gas up 90% and electricity up 40% since the conflict began. Those figures describe conditions cited in that March report; they should not be treated as current market prices or as a recurring forecast. Goldman Sachs’ March 2026 sector analysis
Carbon policy can also shape heavyside supply economics. UBS said a headline 2.5% reduction in free CO₂ allowances in 2026 could amount to an effective 10% cut. The potential implication is tighter supply discipline, but the allowance change is not itself proof that every producer can raise prices or protect margins.
What do the older valuation figures add—and what do they not tell you?
Goldman’s March 2026 sector analysis framed the selloff as an opportunity in companies with pricing power, infrastructure exposure and cost discipline. Its price targets, upside estimates and multiples are historical snapshots rather than current recommendations or comparable live valuations.
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| Company or measure | Goldman figure | Timing and qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Sika | CHF 200 target; approximately 55% upside; described as 35% below its 10-year average P/E. | March 2026 report; target and upside are dated estimates. |
| Rockwool | DKK 239 target; approximately 45% upside. | March 2026 report; dated estimate. |
| Heidelberg Materials | 6–7x EV/EBIT, versus 13x for Holcim and 9x for European peers; €250 target and approximately 45% upside. | March 2026 report; historical valuation comparison and target. |
| Cemex | $14 target and approximately 35% upside; Project Cutting Edge cost program cited at $400 million. | March 2026 report; dated target, upside estimate and program figure. |
The historical comparisons offer context for Goldman’s earlier valuation argument, but they do not establish that the shares remain at those multiples or targets. The current 22 October 2026 view instead emphasizes the two companies’ price-cost outlook and valuation relative to their own long-term P/E averages.
What should investors watch next?
The thesis depends on whether price realization offsets cost movements without relying on a broad volume rebound. Useful indicators include the companies’ forthcoming pricing actions, realized selling prices relative to input costs, capacity additions, and signs that infrastructure or renovation demand is holding up.
- For Rockwool: track gas and electricity costs against price realization, given Goldman’s quantified downside scenario for elevated energy prices.
- For both companies: assess whether pricing holds as demand remains weak, rather than assuming favorable market structure automatically translates into margins.
- For the wider sector: separate infrastructure-supported heavyside performance from more recovery-dependent lightside demand.
- For valuation: check current prices and forecasts against the dates attached to Goldman’s estimates; March targets are not current valuation data.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does “heavyside” mean in European building materials?
It generally refers to heavier construction products and materials, such as cement and aggregates, rather than finish products or insulation. The sector distinction matters here because UBS links heavyside resilience to infrastructure and pricing, while warning that lightside businesses are more dependent on a construction recovery.
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Why does a reduction in free CO₂ allowances matter to building-materials producers?
Free allowances affect how much emissions-related cost producers must cover under the EU carbon framework. UBS’s estimate of a larger effective reduction signals potential cost and supply pressure, but the effect differs by company and does not guarantee that those costs can be passed on.
Are Goldman’s March 2026 price targets still valid?
The available data identifies them as March 2026 estimates, not updated targets. Share prices, forecasts and valuation multiples can change, so those figures should not be used as a current target without checking for a newer analyst publication.
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