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Florida builders are reporting that intensified federal immigration enforcement is removing workers from framing, roofing, painting and other labor-intensive trades, pushing up pay and delaying homes. In Jacksonville, Tidewater Homes president Scott Brannock says crews have become so difficult to retain that his company is struggling to keep projects moving. National surveys show the problem is no longer isolated, but the available figures mix survey results, local estimates and one builder’s reported costs rather than a single statewide measure.
Why are Florida homebuilders short of workers?
Federal raids and the fear of arrest are shrinking the pool of people willing to report to construction sites. A summer increase in enforcement described in The Wall Street Journal has been linked to frozen housing projects and higher labor costs. The trades most exposed are those that depend on large crews working outdoors or on ladders, including framers, roofers and painters.
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Scott Brannock, president of Jacksonville-based Tidewater Homes and the Northeast Florida Builders Association, described the immediate effect in stark terms: “We’re almost dead in the water because our workforce is gone.” Josh Putnal, who owns a Jacksonville siding-and-soffit subcontractor, said: “There’s no one lining up to do a lot of these jobs.”
Jacksonville-area subcontractors told reporters that some firms had lost about 70% of their workforce. That is a local subcontractor estimate, not a nationally representative statistic, and it does not establish how many workers were arrested, deported or permanently left construction.
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How does fear spread beyond people who are arrested?
A June 2026 paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research estimated that each ICE arrest causes an average of seven likely undocumented immigrant men to stop working. The figure is an estimated behavioral response, not a count of arrests or deportations. Workers may stay home, avoid a particular site or leave the area because they believe enforcement could reach them next.
How much have construction wages and framing costs risen in Jacksonville?
Brannock’s reported figures show a sharp Jacksonville increase, while a National Association of Home Builders survey indicates a smaller median increase across the market. They should not be treated as interchangeable measurements.
| Measure | Reported figure | Scope and qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Framing wage | About $20 to $40–$45 per hour | Scott Brannock’s Jacksonville experience, reported in 2026; an individual business statement, not an audited regional average |
| Framing a 2,500-square-foot house | About $10,000 to $25,000–$28,000 | Brannock’s reported cost for that house size in Jacksonville; a reported estimate rather than a market-wide benchmark |
| Median construction labor cost | Up 4.2% year over year | September 2026 NAHB survey result; median across respondents |
| Subcontractor workforce loss | About 70% | Estimate from Jacksonville-area subcontractors; not representative of Florida or the United States |
The gap between Brannock’s experience and the NAHB median illustrates why location, trade and contract timing matter. A builder replacing a crew during an active project can face a much larger jump than a survey median that combines many companies and regions.
Why can one missing trade delay an entire housing project?
Residential construction is sequential. Foundations and slabs must be ready before framing; framing must be substantially complete before mechanical systems, insulation, drywall and finishes can proceed. When a framing or roofing crew disappears, later subcontractors may have no safe or permitted work to perform.
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- Idle capital: Builders continue carrying land, construction loans and interest while a site waits.
- Site overhead: Supervision, temporary utilities, equipment, fencing and insurance continue even when production stops.
- Rebooking costs: A replacement crew may charge more and may not be available when the original schedule required it.
- Financing and delivery risk: Longer schedules can push closings, increase carrying costs and force buyers or developers to renegotiate dates.
That bottleneck explains why a labor shortage can raise the price of a home even when material prices are unchanged: the project accumulates time-related costs and may require a higher-priced crew to restart work.
What percentage of construction workers are immigrants?
The National Association of Home Builders has been cited as finding that immigrants made up 26% of construction workers in 2024. “Immigrant” is a broad workforce category; the figure does not say how many workers were undocumented or identify their legal status. It does show why enforcement aimed at a portion of the immigrant workforce can have effects well beyond the people directly contacted by immigration authorities.
How widespread is the labor shock among builders?
A September 2026 survey by John Burns Research & Consulting found that nearly two-thirds of builders said immigration enforcement was affecting their labor force. The comparable shares were 23% in March 2026 and 13% a year earlier, indicating a rapid change in how commonly builders reported an enforcement-related labor problem.
Those are survey responses, not a count of missing workers or a forecast of home prices. They establish that many builders perceive an impact, while the size of the disruption still varies by geography, trade, subcontractor network and exposure to enforcement.
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Are Trump’s immigration raids making new homes more expensive?
In the short run, builders and subcontractors interviewed in Jacksonville describe a direct cost-and-delay pathway: fewer available crews lead to higher bids, slower sequencing and more overhead. The Wall Street Journal’s reporting also connects the summer enforcement surge with labor-cost increases and projects being put on hold.
There is a competing argument. Advocates of deportations say removing undocumented workers could reduce competition for housing and eventually lower housing costs. That claim concerns a possible longer-term demand effect, while builders are describing an immediate supply and production shock. The evidence cited here does not settle how those forces balance over time, so it would be misleading to present either outcome as certain.
What should Florida buyers and builders watch next?
Jacksonville figures should not be projected automatically onto every Florida market. Readers comparing projects should ask which trade is short, whether a quoted labor price is a one-time replacement bid or a recurring rate, and whether the completion date depends on a named crew that is already committed.
For builders, the practical exposure is concentrated in schedule-sensitive contracts: a missing framing crew can affect every downstream trade, while a late replacement may require revised budgets and financing assumptions. For buyers, a labor-driven delay can appear as a postponed closing or a change order even when the home’s design and material specifications have not changed.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Does the 26% immigrant-workforce figure mean 26% of construction workers are undocumented?
No. The cited NAHB figure covers immigrants as a broad category and does not separate undocumented workers from naturalized citizens, lawful permanent residents or people with temporary status. It therefore cannot be used as an estimate of the undocumented share.
Can a builder automatically pass higher labor costs to a homebuyer?
Not necessarily. The result depends on the sales contract, change-order language, the builder’s remaining margin and whether the home is sold before or after the crew is hired; some costs may be absorbed or renegotiated instead.
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Could enforcement reduce housing prices in the long term?
Possibly, if reduced demand from deportations outweighed the loss of construction capacity, but that is a separate time horizon from the shortages builders are reporting now. The available figures do not provide a settled forecast for the net effect.
How should I interpret the estimate that seven workers stop working after one ICE arrest?
It is an average estimated association from an NBER paper, not a fixed rule for every arrest or a tally of people removed from jobs. Effects can differ by location, workplace, family networks and the intensity of enforcement.
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