The Farmers’ Almanac’s 2026–2027 winter outlook, published October 1, 2026, calls for a wet storm track across much of the South, intermittent cold and snow in parts of the North, and a difficult-to-predict mix of rain, sleet, ice, and wet snow in the Northeast. These are broad seasonal predictions—not a forecast of conditions for a particular town or date.
What the Farmers’ Almanac predicts for winter 2026–2027
The Almanac frames winter as a season of regional contrasts. Its forecast attributes an expected wet pattern across much of the South partly to El Niño, with possible storms extending from Southern California and the Desert Southwest through Texas, the Gulf Coast, and the Southeast. Across northern areas, it expects short cold snaps, fast-moving clippers, and intermittent snow rather than continuous wintry weather. Farmers’ Almanac’s October 1 forecast and its extended forecast give the regional details.
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| Region | Almanac’s seasonal outlook |
|---|---|
| South and Southwest | A wetter storm track is possible from Southern California and the Desert Southwest across Texas, the Gulf Coast, and the Southeast. The Almanac describes the Southwest as mild overall, alongside the potential for a wetter southern storm track. |
| Northeast | Near-freezing storm conditions could produce rain, sleet, freezing rain, or wet snow, depending on small differences in temperature and storm track. Inland areas are highlighted for possible heavy snow, especially in January and February. |
| Great Lakes and Midwest | Cold, snowy periods and possible snow squalls are forecast. |
| Northern Plains and Upper Midwest | Drier stretches may alternate with brief, intense episodes of cold, wind, or snow. |
| Southern Rockies | Mountain snowfall is highlighted as a possibility. |
| Pacific Northwest | The forecast is changeable, with milder, damp periods and variable Cascade snow; lowland snow is described as less dependable. |
Those descriptions are seasonal tendencies, not assurances that a specific community will get snow, ice, or a particular amount of precipitation. The Almanac’s winter-season framing runs from late November through March 20, 2027. Meteorological winter begins December 1; astronomical winter begins at the December 21, 2026 solstice.
What that could mean for snow, ice, and cold
Where snow is emphasized
The Almanac’s clearest snow emphasis is on inland parts of the Northeast in January and February, along with mountain areas of the southern Rockies. It also describes possible snowy periods and squalls around the Great Lakes and Midwest. The forecast does not establish which states or towns will receive the most snow, nor does it provide reliable local accumulation totals.
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Where ice is possible
The Northeast is the main region where the forecast highlights a wintry mix. When temperatures hover near freezing, a small change in the storm’s track or the temperature profile can shift precipitation among rain, sleet, freezing rain, and wet snow. A seasonal outlook cannot resolve that precipitation type for an individual storm; use a local short-range forecast as the event approaches.
Will winter be cold?
The Almanac anticipates quick cold snaps and snowy intervals in parts of the North, not an unbroken stretch of severe cold across the country. Its regional wording leaves room for milder or drier periods, particularly in the Pacific Northwest and Southwest. It should not be read as a prediction of daily temperatures for a particular location.
How the Almanac says it makes a long-range forecast
The publisher says Caleb Weatherbee prepares the outlook using a proprietary formula rooted in the publication’s founding era. It describes considering recurring natural cycles, solar activity, lunar influences, and historical weather patterns, alongside satellite observations, computer modeling, current meteorological data, historical analogs, and large-scale ocean and atmospheric patterns. The publisher identifies Caleb Weatherbee as a pseudonym.
The exact formula is not public, so readers cannot reproduce the calculation from that description. Broad regional terms such as “wet,” “near normal,” or “snowy periods” also leave substantial room for interpretation; they should not be converted into a promise about a particular date, town, or snowfall total.
How accurate is the Farmers’ Almanac forecast?
The Farmers’ Almanac says it reports 80–85% accuracy for regional outlooks. That is the publisher’s own stated figure, not an independently established score for the 2026–2027 forecast. In January 2026, the Associated Press summarized studies finding Almanac forecasts a little more than 50% accurate—about on par with random chance. A separate 2007 discussion by Penn State meteorologist Paul Knight noted that vague forecast language can make consistent scoring difficult, and that rainfall is hard to predict far in advance even with modern meteorology. These assessments differ in date and evaluation basis; neither supplies a definitive, independently verified score for this winter’s outlook. The AP report and Penn State’s discussion provide context.
How NOAA’s outlook differs
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues a separate probabilistic outlook for seasonal averages, not a calendar of individual storms. Its discussion for fall and winter 2026–2027 gives greater than 90% odds of a very strong El Niño during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter. For October–November–December 2026, it gives a 75% chance of a historic event reaching at least +2.5°C on the three-month RONI value. Those percentages describe the ENSO outlook; they are not the odds of snow in a particular city or of the Almanac’s forecast verifying. NOAA also cautions that even with an event of that magnitude, El Niño-consistent impacts are more likely, not guaranteed. See NOAA’s seasonal outlook discussion.
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For overlapping fall and winter periods, NOAA favors above-normal seasonal mean temperatures across much of the western, northern, and eastern contiguous United States, with equal chances in places where signals are weak or competing. Its outlooks draw on ENSO composites, historical analogs, dynamical models—including NMME, CFSv2, and Copernicus multi-model output—skill-weighted statistical guidance, and longer-term trends at later leads. This is not a direct contradiction of every Almanac description: the products use different methods, geographic wording, categories, and time windows.
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NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues official 90-day outlooks monthly, near mid-month. Its schedule includes winter-spanning November–December–January, December–January–February, and January–February–March periods. Check the current seasonal outlooks for updated probabilities as winter approaches.
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How to use a seasonal forecast for practical planning
For construction work, a months-ahead outlook is useful as a prompt to review contingency plans, not as a basis for scheduling around a specific storm. Regional snowfall or ice potential may warrant checking that site access, material protection, drainage, and cold-weather procedures are ready; local forecasts and observed conditions should guide day-to-day decisions.
Quick Recap
- Use the Almanac’s regional themes to identify weather risks worth monitoring, especially ice potential in the Northeast and wet conditions along the southern storm track.
- As a project date approaches, replace seasonal assumptions with local forecasts and applicable site-specific safety procedures.
- Recheck NOAA’s monthly outlooks for broad shifts in seasonal probabilities, while remembering they do not predict individual storm dates.
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