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What do the August figures show?
The claim “Exports of lumber from Canada increase 11% in August” is incomplete: it gives neither a year nor a measure, such as export value or physical volume. The official sources available show different results for different periods and series, and neither supports an 11% August increase.
Statistics Canada: export value in August 2025
Statistics Canada reported that exports of lumber and other sawmill products fell 25.4% from July to August 2025, the largest decrease among forestry products and building and packaging materials. The August level was the lowest since May 2020, according to its October 7, 2025 release.
The series measured current-dollar export values, seasonally adjusted and on a balance-of-payments basis—not the amount of lumber shipped by volume. Statistics Canada’s monthly chart shows $1.277 billion in July 2025 and $953 million in August 2025.
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Global Affairs Canada: Canada–U.S. export volume in August 2026
A different measure appears in Global Affairs Canada’s permit-based reports. Its August 2026 report, revised September 15, 2026, lists 786,505,086 board feet of Canada–U.S. softwood lumber exports. The July 2026 report lists 845,715,110 board feet, so the month-to-month comparison within this series is also a decrease, not an 11% increase. The figures are subject to correction and final reconciliation.
Why the two reports are not interchangeable
Statistics Canada’s figure is a national merchandise-trade value series, expressed in current dollars and seasonally adjusted. Global Affairs Canada’s figure is a permit-report volume for softwood lumber exports to the United States, expressed in board feet. They cover different measures and scopes, so one should not be used to confirm or contradict the other as though they were the same statistic.
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- Reference period: identify the month and year.
- Measure: distinguish export value from physical volume.
- Adjustment: state whether a series is seasonally adjusted.
- Scope: distinguish national merchandise trade from bilateral Canada–U.S. permit volumes.
- Status: note whether figures can be revised.
What Statistics Canada said about the 2025 decline
Statistics Canada noted that higher U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing duties took effect in late July and early August 2025, placing the timing of the lumber-export decline in that context. This does not establish that the duties alone caused the decrease.
For background on the Canada–U.S. softwood lumber dispute and links to monthly reports, see Global Affairs Canada’s softwood lumber page. Duty rates and review outcomes can change, so a current legal or rate claim should be checked against that live government source.
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