U.S. construction spending is not broadly booming: it was down year over year in August 2026. But the decline is uneven. Power and office spending rose while manufacturing construction fell sharply, showing a market where activity is concentrated in different places—not a uniform expansion.
What the latest construction spending figures show
The U.S. Census Bureau estimated total construction spending at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of $2,203.1 billion in August 2026, 1.7% below August 2025. Spending from January through August was 3.1% below the same period in 2025. These are nominal spending figures, not inflation-adjusted measures of construction volume. The August release, published October 1, 2026, is preliminary and may be revised. See the Census Bureau’s Monthly Construction Spending release and data.
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SAAR expresses the pace of spending as an annual rate after seasonal adjustment; it does not mean $2,203.1 billion was spent in August alone. A rising category can also coexist with a falling total: the category’s direction does not determine the direction of the entire market.
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Where construction is still growing—and which sectors are shrinking
The August comparison shows pronounced differences across private construction categories. The dollar figures below are August 2026 SAAR estimates; year-over-year changes compare with August 2025.
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| Category | August 2026 spending | Year-over-year change | What the figure indicates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Power | $165.9 billion SAAR | Up 9.7% | A clear area of growth within private construction; the category covers different kinds of power facilities. |
| Office | $134.1 billion SAAR | Up 29.8% | Spending rose, but that figure alone does not establish a recovery in conventional office building. |
| Manufacturing | $168.2 billion SAAR | Down 19.8% | A substantial decline; manufacturing spending through August was down 22.2% year to date. |
| Total construction | $2,203.1 billion SAAR | Down 1.7% | The overall market remained below its year-earlier level. |
The figures come from the Census Bureau’s August 2026 construction-spending estimates. Power’s increase should not be attributed entirely to data centers: the Census power category includes multiple facility types.
Why office spending can rise while traditional offices remain weak
Office spending is up in the Census category, but the category is not a direct measure of data-center projects, nor does the release identify what caused its increase. FMI’s Q4 2026 outlook interprets data-center work as lifting office spending even as traditional office construction falls. That is FMI’s explanation of the pattern, not a category-level cause-and-effect finding from Census. Read FMI’s Q4 2026 Construction Outlook.
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A separate, earlier data point helps show why data centers are part of the discussion, but should not be confused with August’s office estimate: the Associated General Contractors of America, citing Census Bureau data, reported data-center construction spending at a $59.3 billion SAAR in May 2026, up 23% year over year. That figure is for May and is separately presented; it is not the August office-category total. See AGC’s data-center economic impact page.
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What forecasts say about the shift
Forecasts available in 2026 also describe a divided outlook, but they are projections rather than observed spending results. The American Institute of Architects’ July 2026 consensus forecast panel shows substantial projected data-center growth and mostly negative manufacturing projections for 2026. Among panelists reporting a data-center figure, displayed estimates range from 26.0% to 41.7%; manufacturing estimates are mostly negative, although one contributor projects a small increase. The AIA describes its consensus as an average of submissions by category, and notes that some categories lack standard definitions. No single panelist’s figure should be presented as the AIA consensus. Read the AIA’s July 2026 consensus forecast.
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FMI’s Q4 2026 outlook likewise projects growth in data centers and power alongside declines in manufacturing and residential segments. The two outlooks reinforce the idea of divergence, not a guaranteed result for every category or project. Forecasts can vary by contributor, assumptions, and category definition.
How to read the numbers without mistaking a shift for a boom
- Separate actuals from projections. Census reports estimated spending; AIA and FMI publish outlooks. They answer different questions and should not be treated as interchangeable evidence.
- Keep the period attached to the statistic. August year-over-year changes, January–August cumulative changes, and May data-center spending are different comparisons.
- Remember the price limitation. Census says its spending estimates are not adjusted for price changes, so nominal dollar growth is not the same as growth in the amount of construction completed.
- Allow for revisions and noise. Census cautions that monthly movements can be irregular. Its release says, “It may take 2 months to establish an underlying trend for total construction and as long as 8 months for specific categories of construction.”
- Do not infer a geographic map from national totals. The available Census regional and division historical indexes run through 2025, and state series through 2022–2025; they do not establish where August 2026 growth is occurring by state or metro area. See the Census Bureau’s historical construction-spending data.
What “growth has moved” means for the construction market
The phrase describes a concentrated, mixed market: power and office spending rose in August 2026 while manufacturing spending fell, and overall construction spending remained below the previous year. It does not mean the whole sector is expanding, that every project type is weakening, or that data centers explain every increase in power or office spending. For contractors and readers tracking demand, the useful question is not simply whether construction is growing, but which categories are gaining, over what period, and whether the signal is an observed estimate or a forecast.
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