Canadian lumber production fell in July 2026, while the United States remained the dominant destination for Canadian softwood lumber exports. At a Senate hearing, Forest Products Association of Canada chief executive Derek Nighbor argued that overseas markets cannot replace U.S. demand in the near term. That is a reported industry assessment—not proof that replacement is impossible over a longer period.
How much did Canadian lumber production fall?
Statistics Canada recorded 3,546.4 thousand cubic metres of lumber production in July 2026. That was down 8.6% from June and 6.7% from July 2025. The monthly series is not seasonally adjusted and may be revised. The figures establish a decline, but they do not identify its cause; the available data do not show that U.S. duties alone drove the cut.
Statistics Canada’s lumber production series provides the official production measure.
Why does the U.S. remain difficult to replace?
Wood Central reported, attributing its trade figures to Statistics Canada, that Canadian softwood lumber exports totalled 13.2 million cubic metres in the first half of 2026, 12% less than a year earlier. The U.S. accounted for 89% of that trade. The report says U.S. buyers took 1.73 million fewer cubic metres than in the first half of 2025.
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Those trade totals were not independently checked against the underlying Statistics Canada table here, so they should be read as figures reported by Wood Central with that attribution. Even on that account, the export pattern shows why a fall in U.S. purchases is difficult to offset quickly: the largest buyer has a much greater scale than any one alternative destination.
Can Japan, China, South Korea or Europe absorb the difference?
Nighbor told senators, as reported by Wood Central, that alternative markets could not absorb enough Canadian lumber to replace U.S. demand in the near term. He described diversification as incremental and pointed to building-code differences and the work of educating markets. His point was not that exports to other countries cannot grow, but that developing buyers and matching their requirements takes time.
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The first-half figures in Wood Central’s report illustrate the scale problem. China bought 525,000 cubic metres, up 3% year over year, while Japan bought 373,000 cubic metres, down 19%. Other markets combined bought 1.5 million cubic metres, down 3%. Taken together, non-U.S. destinations did not expand enough to make up for the reported U.S. decline. The cited report does not provide comparable figures here for South Korea or Europe, so their individual capacity to take additional lumber cannot be quantified from these numbers.
Volume is only part of the challenge. Producers must also find buyers for the right species, grades and dimensions, meet local product specifications and building codes, and sell at a commercially viable realized value. A market that can take some lumber is not automatically a market that can absorb comparable volumes on comparable terms.
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Wood Central quoted Nighbor saying, “It’s not a matter of just putting sticks on a boat and sending them somewhere else,” a concise description of those commercial and regulatory barriers.
Could U.S. sawmills replace Canadian supply?
The U.S. Lumber Coalition makes the counterargument that domestic mills could increase output. In a January 2026 report, the Coalition estimated that raising U.S. mill utilization from 80% in 2024 to 88% could add 3,667 million board feet of output. It also estimated a net capacity increase of 1,893 million board feet through 2026.
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Those are projections advanced by an industry advocacy group, drawing on utilization data it attributes to the Western Wood Products Association and capacity inputs it attributes to Forisk. They are not neutral findings that the United States can immediately replace all Canadian supply. More production capacity does not by itself establish that mills can provide the same species, grades and dimensions, in the same regions, with workable transport and at prices buyers will accept.
The arguments therefore address different timelines and conditions: the Coalition points to potential domestic output gains, while Nighbor emphasizes the near-term scale and market-fit limits on export diversification. Neither position proves what the full market can replace under every future price, investment or policy scenario.
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What U.S. duties apply to Canadian softwood lumber?
Global Affairs Canada’s live chronology distinguishes the currently listed Section 232 tariff from preliminary results in the seventh administrative review. It lists a 10% Section 232 tariff on softwood lumber. Separately, it lists a preliminary combined seventh-review rate of 24.83% for non-selected respondents, announced April 9, 2026. The department says those preliminary results do not take effect.
Do not add the preliminary 24.83% figure to the 10% tariff and describe the sum as a finalized rate. The preliminary review result is not in force, and rates can vary by company and administrative review. The official chronology should be consulted for the status and company-specific details: Global Affairs Canada’s softwood lumber chronology.
Quick Recap
What the figures do—and do not—show
- Production: Statistics Canada measured a July decline, but the series does not establish what caused it.
- Export dependence: Wood Central’s Statistics Canada-attributed figures show the U.S. remained the overwhelmingly dominant buyer in the first half of 2026, while other markets combined did not grow enough to offset the reported U.S. drop.
- Replacement: Nighbor’s near-term warning and the Coalition’s domestic-capacity projections are attributed positions, not settled findings about every product, market or future period.
- Duties: The listed 10% Section 232 tariff is distinct from the announced preliminary seventh-review result, which Global Affairs Canada says does not take effect.
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