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One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchA 2024 study estimated that long-term nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) exposure from gas and propane stoves may be associated with up to 19,000 adult deaths a year in the United States. That is a modeled estimate—not a count of death certificates or proof that stoves directly caused 19,000 deaths. The result depends on applying mortality evidence about outdoor NO₂ to modeled indoor exposure, an assumption with important uncertainty.
What does the 19,000 figure mean?
Kashtan and colleagues estimated a possible annual U.S. burden of up to 19,000 adult deaths, with a 95% confidence interval of 8,500 to 34,000. Their 2024 study in Science Advances modeled exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) from gas and propane stoves, then applied risk relationships drawn from studies of long-term outdoor NO₂ exposure.
The figure is therefore a population-level estimate, not an observed annual toll and not a finding that a particular person’s death was caused by a stove. Its uncertainty reflects, among other things, the step from outdoor mortality evidence to indoor exposure. Outdoor NO₂ studies may also be affected by other pollutants that occur alongside NO₂, including traffic-related particulate matter.
How did the researchers estimate exposure?
The study combined emissions and indoor concentration measurements from more than 100 homes with room-specific modeling and data about housing and occupant behavior. The authors used NIST CONTAM software to simulate airflow and pollutant movement, and compared model results with measurements in homes. They then used the model to estimate broader U.S. exposures.
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The study estimated that typical gas and propane stove use raises annual-average NO₂ exposure by about 4 parts per billion (ppb) nationwide. Cooking can also cause short-term concentrations to rise substantially. Those peaks are distinct from the annual-average exposure used for the mortality estimate.
What other health estimates did the study report?
The paper also modeled pediatric asthma cases associated with stove pollution. These are estimates of cases attributed to exposure, not counts of children diagnosed in a survey.
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| Study estimate | What it refers to |
|---|---|
| Up to 19,000 adult deaths annually (95% confidence interval: 8,500–34,000) | Possible U.S. annual burden associated with long-term stove-related NO₂ exposure, based on modeled exposure and mortality evidence from outdoor NO₂ studies. |
| About 50,000 current pediatric asthma cases | Model estimate associated with long-term stove-related NO₂ exposure alone. |
| About 200,000 current pediatric asthma cases | Model estimate when the broader mix of pollutants from stoves is considered; this is not the NO₂-only estimate. |
All three figures are estimates from Kashtan et al., published in Science Advances in 2024. The asthma estimates should not be read as measured case counts, and the broader-pollutant figure should not be substituted for the NO₂-only estimate.
What are the study’s main limitations?
- The mortality estimate relies on an indirect link. The authors applied risk relationships from outdoor NO₂ research to modeled long-term indoor exposure; that relationship is not a direct count of deaths caused by indoor stove emissions.
- Other outdoor pollutants could affect the risk relationship. The study notes that outdoor epidemiology may be confounded by pollutants such as traffic-related particulate matter, which could make the estimated NO₂ burden too high.
- The mortality analysis focuses on long-term NO₂. It does not count repeated short-term concentration peaks, and it evaluates one pollutant even though gas stoves emit other pollutants as well.
- Related respiratory evidence is mixed. An American Lung Association literature review addendum published in April 2025 describes mixed findings across studies of indoor combustion and asthma. It reports that intervention studies intended to reduce pollutants from gas and wood stoves had not shown significant changes in measured respiratory outcomes. That review does not independently reproduce or directly invalidate the 19,000-death estimate.
Why can exposure differ from one home to another?
The study’s modeled exposure varied with home size and household characteristics. For homes under 800 square feet, estimated long-term exposure was about four times that in homes over 3,000 square feet. The authors also estimated exposure 60% above the national average in American Indian and Alaska Native households, and 20% above the national average in Black and Hispanic/Latino households.
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These are modeled group and housing patterns, not predictions for an individual household or evidence that race itself causes exposure. Housing size, how much gas is burned, cooking duration, and ventilation all matter. The study’s lead author, Yannai Kashtan, said that the amount of gas burned was the biggest factor affecting exposure, followed by whether a household had an effective range hood and used it.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What can households and builders do about stove-related NO₂?
For an existing gas or propane stove, ventilation is a practical exposure-reduction consideration. Use an effective range hood when cooking if one is available. A hood that exhausts outdoors can help, but the Stanford report on the study notes that NO₂ concentrations may still spike even when an outdoor-venting hood is used. The study does not establish that a hood prevents illness or eliminates exposure.
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For a household considering electric cooking, an electric stove produces no NO₂ from stove combustion. A portable induction cooktop is one option for electric cooking when replacing a full range is not feasible; the cited study did not test a particular product or establish a guaranteed reduction in health risk. The evidence supports the difference in stove-combustion NO₂ emissions, not a claim that buying a specific appliance prevents disease.
For construction and renovation decisions, the findings make ventilation design and actual hood use relevant to indoor-air planning, particularly in smaller homes. They do not provide a product comparison, installation-cost analysis, or a quantified promise of health benefit.
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