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Construction activity remained in contraction across the four European markets covered in an October 6, 2026 syndicated report attributing the findings to Jefferies. September readings improved in the UK, France and Italy, but worsened in Germany; all four stayed below 50. The report says residential work was the weakest segment in Germany, the UK and Italy, while non-residential construction was weakest in France. These are monthly survey readings, not direct measures of construction output or investment.
September readings: improvement did not mean expansion
The country figures below are attributed to Jefferies by a syndicated report published October 6, 2026; the underlying Jefferies note was not available. A reading below 50 is conventionally described as contraction. A move upward from August therefore indicates that contraction became less severe, not that activity expanded. The report does not identify the survey series or explain its methodology, so the readings should not be treated as direct measures of output, investment or year-over-year change.
| Market | September 2026 reading | August 2026 reading | What the report says |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 43.5 | 48.7 | Weakened sharply. Residential activity was the main drag; non-residential construction returned to contraction after brief August growth, while civil engineering was near neutral. |
| United Kingdom | 46.1 | 44.3 | Contraction was the least severe in eight months, but new orders fell sharply and business optimism weakened. |
| France | 39.8 | 37.3 | Improved but remained in steep contraction. Non-residential work was weakest; civil engineering declined most softly. |
| Italy | 46.5 | 41.7 | Contraction eased from August’s four-year low. Residential work was the largest drag, though business expectations remained optimistic. |
France had the lowest September reading, while Germany recorded the sharpest deterioration from August. The UK and Italy had the highest readings of the four, but neither was above the conventional expansion threshold. The comparison is limited to these four countries and is not a complete measure of European construction.
StreetInsider’s syndicated report attributes the readings and country details to Jefferies. It does not provide the underlying note, survey provider, sampling details or seasonal-adjustment information.
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Which segments and demand signals were weakest?
The report describes weak demand and declining new orders across the covered markets, alongside differing expectations and price pressures:
- Germany: Residential activity was the primary weakness, and non-residential construction slipped back into contraction. Business expectations were pessimistic or weakened. Reported product inflation reached its highest level since June, attributed to fuel and energy prices.
- United Kingdom: Housing was the weakest segment. New orders fell sharply and optimism weakened, even as the overall reading improved. Reported inflation moderated to a seven-month low.
- France: Non-residential construction was weakest; civil engineering fell more softly. Expectations were pessimistic or weakened.
- Italy: Residential work was the largest drag, but business expectations remained optimistic. Reported inflation picked up to a four-month high.
These segment, demand and inflation observations are also report-attributed; they are not independently verified figures from the original Jefferies note.
How the monthly survey fits with the EU investment outlook
Monthly survey readings and annual investment estimates answer different questions. FIEC’s 2026 Statistical Report describes a fragile, uneven recovery in EU construction investment: it estimates a 2.5% decline in 2024 and a further 2.1% decline in real terms in 2025, then forecasts 2.7% growth in 2026. Those are annual investment estimates and a forecast, not September activity readings.
FIEC’s segment outlook is mixed:
- Civil engineering: Investment grew 4.6% in 2024 and 3.8% in 2025; FIEC forecasts 4.1% growth in 2026. It points to transport, energy and water infrastructure investment, supported by European and national funding programmes.
- Building: FIEC forecasts 2.2% growth in 2026 after a 3.5% decline in 2025. Within that outlook, new housebuilding is forecast to rebound 5.1% from a very low base, while renovation is forecast to grow 1.3%.
- Non-residential construction: After a 1.8% contraction in 2025, FIEC forecasts 1.4% growth in 2026.
FIEC identifies financing conditions, public investment capacity, energy and material costs, administrative delays, labour availability and company solvency as factors that could affect how quickly and durably recovery takes hold. Its figures are estimates and forecasts, not guaranteed outcomes. See FIEC’s 2026 Statistical Report for the annual investment context and segment outlook.
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The European Commission says its harmonised business surveys cover construction and support comparisons between countries and monitoring of the EU and euro area. Its September 2026 summary reports an economy-wide Economic Sentiment Indicator of 97.9 for both the EU and euro area, below the long-term average of 100. That indicator is broader than construction and is not a substitute for the four country readings above. The Commission’s pages explain the business and consumer survey scope and provide its latest survey results.
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