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Construction output is forecast to grow 2.2% in 2027 across EUROCONSTRUCT’s 19-country area (EC-19), up from 2.0% in 2026. That points to modest growth, not a confirmed EU-wide acceleration: EC-19 is not the EU-27, and the latest observed EU data still showed falling construction production in July 2026.
What the 2027 forecast says
EUROCONSTRUCT’s 2026 forecast release projects annual construction-output growth of 2.2% in EC-19 in 2027, after 2.0% in 2026, followed by 1.9% in 2028. The outlook therefore remains positive, but it does not project a sustained year-on-year increase in the growth rate through 2028. EUROCONSTRUCT said its outlook was “cautiously positive” and that growth was expected to be slower than previously anticipated (official release, June 5, 2026).
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The 2027 figure is for EUROCONSTRUCT’s 19-country area, not the EU-27. It should not be presented as a forecast for all EU member states. The available sources do not establish a direct EU-27 construction-output growth forecast for 2027.
Why the forecast points to recovery, but not a boom
The expected gains follow a difficult period. EUROCONSTRUCT reports that construction output across EC-19 fell by just over 3% in total over 2023 and 2024, then increased by 0.2% in 2025. Against that weak starting point, the 2.2% forecast for 2027 represents a recovery in output, but the forecast’s smaller rate in 2028 signals continued moderate growth rather than rapid expansion.
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The forecast was also revised: EUROCONSTRUCT lowered its 2026 growth projection from 2.4% to 2.0%, while leaving the 2027 and 2028 forecasts at 2.2% and 1.9%. It cited changed operating conditions, including energy prices, inflation, interest-rate trends, and weaker consumer and business confidence. Those factors make the recovery outlook sensitive to economic conditions rather than assured.
Recent EU production data are still weak
Monthly production data offer a different, more immediate view than an annual forecast. Eurostat reported that EU construction production in July 2026 was 1.8% lower than in July 2025 and 0.3% below June 2026. In the euro area, production was unchanged from June and down 2.0% year over year (Eurostat, July 2026 construction production).
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Different construction segments face different conditions
Eurostat’s July 2026 EU figures show that the main construction activities were not moving in lockstep:
| EU activity | Change from July 2025 |
|---|---|
| Building construction | Down 5.6% |
| Civil engineering | Down 0.4% |
| Specialised construction activities | Down 1.5% |
EUROCONSTRUCT describes civil engineering as the stronger segment over 2023–2025 and forecasts growth across all segments during 2026–2028. That broader forecast does not mean every country or project type will recover at the same pace. EUROCONSTRUCT cautions that national statistical definitions and market structures differ, and that it does not apply a single forecasting model to every country (Summer 2026 reports and methodology context).
Do not confuse construction output with investment
The European Commission’s Spring 2026 forecast projects EU gross fixed capital formation growth of 2.2% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027. Gross fixed capital formation measures economy-wide investment, not construction output alone. It may provide useful context for the investment environment, but it is not an alternative EU construction growth forecast (European Commission, Spring 2026 Economic Forecast).
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How to read the European construction outlook
When comparing forecasts or assessing the market, check four details before drawing a conclusion:
- Geography: establish whether a figure covers EC-19, the EU-27, or the euro area.
- Forecast date: forecasts can be revised as assumptions about inflation, energy, interest rates, and confidence change.
- Construction segment: residential and non-residential building, civil engineering, and specialised activities can perform differently.
- Measure and time period: annual construction output, monthly production, and total fixed investment are distinct measures and should not be compared as if they were interchangeable.
EUROCONSTRUCT’s Summer 2026 reports provide country-specific forecasts and sector coverage for readers who need a more detailed market view. Their scope is useful precisely because a regional average can conceal substantial differences between national markets and construction segments.
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