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What the 2026 evidence shows
The claim that recycled-steel export prices are “static” is too broad for the available 2026 data. BIR’s ferrous-market reporting found that US and EU export prices “followed similar paths during the first six months of 2026,” according to statistics adviser Rolf Willeke. Similar paths indicate correlation between markets, not an unchanged price.
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BIR’s July 10 report described the market as a series of “twists and turns” and recorded an approximately 7% decline in Scandinavian HMS 80/20 prices during June. The report linked that drop to weaker Turkish buying. This is a concrete month-to-month movement in a named recycled-steel grade, even while other benchmarks were following different trajectories.
Key price and trade indicators
| Indicator | Reported value | Scope and date |
|---|---|---|
| BLS iron-and-steel export-price index | 100.0 in January 2025; 113.5 in June 2026; 115.4 in September 2026 | U.S. index with January 2025 set to 100; covers iron and steel exports, not recycled steel alone |
| Scandinavian HMS 80/20 | Approximately 7% lower in June 2026 | BIR recycled-steel market observation; decline followed weaker Turkish buying |
| U.S. No. 1 heavy melting steel scrap | $319.00 per ton estimated 2025 annual average | U.S. Geological Survey estimate; the 2024 estimate was $314.85 per ton |
| U.S. exported scrap value | $3.6 billion in 2025 | USGS estimate, down from $4.5 billion in 2024 |
The BLS index rose 15.4 index points from its January 2025 base to September 2026. That increase is useful evidence that export prices in the wider iron-and-steel category changed, but it must not be presented as a recycled-steel-only price series. The USGS annual figure likewise concerns No. 1 heavy melting scrap and is not interchangeable with a monthly HMS 80/20 export quotation.
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US and EU markets moved together, but not at a fixed level
BIR also reported January–June 2026 export volumes of 8.520 million tonnes from the EU-27, up 4.5% year on year, and 6.124 million tonnes from the United States, up 2.1%. Growing or declining tonnage does not automatically set a price, but these figures provide context for the markets whose price paths BIR compared.
When two regions rise or fall in parallel, common influences can include overlapping buyers, freight conditions, currency movements and steel-mill demand. The June Scandinavian decline shows why correlation should not be mistaken for uniformity: a regional benchmark can weaken even when another export index is rising.
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Why there is no single “current export price”
Recycled steel is traded in grades with different specifications. HMS 80/20, No. 1 heavy melting and other categories can attract different bids because of size, cleanliness, coating, contamination limits and preparation. A valid comparison should record:
- the recycled-steel grade and specification;
- country of origin and destination;
- shipment month or quotation date;
- currency and the Incoterm used;
- whether the figure is an index, an assessment or an executed transaction; and
- the traded volume or lot size.
Freight, insurance, exchange rates and port costs can change the delivered value even when two sellers quote the same nominal grade. A regional assessment such as BIR’s Scandinavian HMS 80/20 observation should therefore not be merged mathematically with the BLS index or a USGS annual average.
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What buyers and sellers should do with the data
For construction firms and fabricators
Use a dated, grade-specific quotation when budgeting reinforcement, structural steel or demolition-recovery revenue. Treat an annual average as a planning reference rather than a firm offer, and ask whether the number is export, delivered or domestic mill pricing.
For exporters and brokers
Document the benchmark behind every quote and state the shipment window. The 7% Scandinavian HMS 80/20 fall in June demonstrates that a short period of weaker demand can materially alter a regional price. A buyer relying on an older offer should request a refreshed assessment rather than assume the market is flat.
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For analysts comparing regions
Keep BIR’s recycled-steel observations, BLS’s broader iron-and-steel index and USGS’s annual scrap estimates in separate series. They answer different questions and use different product and time scopes. Comparing direction and timing can be informative; treating them as one global spot price is not supported by the available evidence.
Bottom line for 2026
Recycled-steel export prices did not stop changing. BIR documented a roughly 7% June decline for Scandinavian HMS 80/20 after weaker Turkish demand, while US and EU prices moved along similar paths in the first half of the year. The BLS iron-and-steel export index rose from 100.0 in January 2025 to 115.4 in September 2026, and USGS estimated a 2025 average of $319.00 per ton for No. 1 heavy melting scrap. These figures describe different markets, so the only defensible “current price” is one tied to a precise grade, route, date and pricing basis.
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