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“Peak new-build” describes a possible shift in construction’s project mix, not the end of new construction. Mark Farmer’s 2021 argument was that a larger share of commissioned work could involve retaining, converting and refurbishing existing assets while the industry still builds additional homes, infrastructure and commercial space. The latest evidence supports a nuanced reading: Great Britain’s annual new-work value and new orders rose in 2025, yet new work weakened in the third quarter of 2026 while repair and maintenance edged up. England’s new-build completions remain below their 2021 high, although starts increased in the latest year. The data do not establish a permanent, industry-wide peak.
What does “peak new-build” mean?
“Peak new-build” means the proportion of construction work devoted to creating entirely new assets may have reached a high point and could gradually give way to more conversion, refurbishment, repair and adaptation. It does not mean that contractors stop building, that housing supply no longer needs new homes, or that every sector has passed its maximum.
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The phrase comes from Mark Farmer’s opinion article in Building on 5 July 2021. Farmer wrote that “the profile of the work being commissioned will change, with a greater proportion of conversion and refurbishment relative to new-build”. That is a forecast about the balance of work, not a measured declaration that the whole industry has peaked.
A useful test is therefore to ask “peak” of what: total construction output, new-work value, new orders, private new housing, housing completions, or the share of projects that are new rather than alteration work? Each measure covers a different activity and period.
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What do the latest Great Britain construction figures show?
The latest Great Britain statistics point in two directions. Annual indicators were stronger in 2025, while the most recent quarterly figures show a softer market for new work and a small rise in repair and maintenance.
| Measure | Latest result | What it does—and does not—show |
|---|---|---|
| Construction new-work value, 2025 | £139,106 million, up 1.9% in current prices | A larger nominal value of new work; because it is in current prices, it is not a pure volume or workload comparison. |
| Construction new orders, 2025 | £83,335 million, up 16.2% | More work was ordered across Great Britain overall; private new housing was the only new-orders sector to decline. |
| Total construction output, 2026 Q3 | Down 0.7% quarter on quarter | A short-term change in output, not proof of a long-term structural peak. |
| New work, 2026 Q3 | Down 1.6% quarter on quarter | New construction weakened in the quarter. |
| Repair and maintenance, 2026 Q3 | Up 0.5% quarter on quarter | Maintenance activity was comparatively more resilient, but the increase was modest. |
| Private new housing output, 2026 Q3 | Down 4.7% quarter on quarter | A pronounced quarterly fall in one segment, not a result for all housing or all construction. |
Prices checked November 2026.
The annual figures are from the Office for National Statistics’ Construction statistics, Great Britain: 2025. The quarterly results are from the ONS September 2026 construction output and new-orders release. They should not be read as contradictory: an annual increase can coexist with a quarterly decline because they measure different time windows and can be affected by prices, timing and the project pipeline.
Has housing new-build already peaked in England?
England’s housing indicators show that new-build completions are below their recent high, but the latest year does not show a fresh collapse. In the year to 30 June 2026, there were 143,770 new-build completions, unchanged from the previous year. The recent high was 181,940 completions in the year to June 2021. Starts rose 15% year on year to 136,330.
Those figures come from the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government’s housing-supply indicators for England. They are England-only housing measures, unlike the ONS construction series, which covers Great Britain and includes housing, infrastructure, commercial and other work.
Starts and completions also sit at different points in the delivery cycle. A rise in starts can feed completions later, subject to planning, finance, construction capacity and sales conditions. Conversely, a completion total can remain stable even while current starts change. Neither series by itself establishes the proportion of all construction that is refurbishment.
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Why do the indicators appear to disagree?
They measure different things, so a mixed result is expected rather than an error.
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- Geography: ONS figures cover Great Britain; the housing-supply release covers England.
- Sector: New orders and output include infrastructure, commercial, public and private work, not only homes.
- Metric: Value, volume, orders, starts and completions are separate series. A nominal value can rise because prices rise, while physical output is flat or lower.
- Timing: Orders are commitments, output is work delivered, starts are projects beginning, and completions are projects finishing.
- Definition: “New work” is not the same as “new-build homes”. Repair and maintenance can include substantial construction activity without creating a new building.
The ONS’s 2025 new-orders increase therefore does not refute a shift toward adaptation, because it says nothing by itself about the share of orders that are refurbishment. Similarly, the 2026 Q3 fall in new work is a warning about current momentum, not proof that a permanent peak has arrived.
Is refurbishment likely to replace new-build?
Refurbishment is more likely to expand alongside new-build than to replace it outright. Existing buildings need upgrades for energy performance, accessibility, safety, changing work patterns and new uses, while population growth, household formation, infrastructure demand and obsolete stock still create requirements that only additional capacity can meet.
Conversion can add usable homes or commercial space without constructing an entirely new shell, but its feasibility depends on floor-to-floor heights, structure, daylight, fire strategy, services, planning rules, contamination and the economics of the site. A building that cannot meet the brief safely or economically may need partial demolition, replacement or a new building beside it.
For contractors, the shift can change the risk profile. Work in occupied buildings brings logistics, surveys, temporary works, unknown conditions, resident or tenant liaison and phased handovers. New-build tends to offer more predictable geometry and sequencing, although it carries its own planning, utility, ground and procurement risks. The likely market is a blended one: new projects where additional capacity is essential, and more sophisticated retrofit and conversion where the existing asset can be adapted.
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Does refurbishment always have lower embodied carbon?
No. Reusing an existing structure can avoid some materials and demolition, but the carbon outcome is project-specific. It depends on what is retained, what must be replaced, the energy performance achieved, the building’s future life, transport, construction methods and the boundary used for the calculation.
The MHCLG report Consideration of embodied carbon in new buildings, researched by AECOM and published in July 2025, addresses practical, technical and economic issues in measuring and reducing embodied carbon. The cited material does not establish one universal percentage saving for refurbishment versus new-build. Any claim of that kind should be treated cautiously unless it states the building type, baseline, retained elements, life-cycle stages and assumptions.
A defensible comparison should set the same functional brief for both options and disclose at least:
- the quantity and condition of structure retained;
- demolition, waste, transport and temporary-works impacts;
- new materials, services, finishes and replacement cycles;
- operational-energy assumptions and the assessment period;
- future adaptability, maintenance and end-of-life scenarios.
Carbon is important, but it is one decision criterion among cost, programme, safety, community disruption, delivery certainty and performance.
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Start with the functional brief and the existing asset, then compare options on a common basis. The “greenest” or fastest-looking route can change once surveys, planning constraints and whole-life costs are known.
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| Decision question | Evidence to gather | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Can the existing structure meet the brief? | Condition, structural capacity, floor-to-floor heights, grid, daylight and accessibility surveys | Reveals whether adaptation is technically possible without disproportionate intervention. |
| What approvals are required? | Planning history, listed status, building regulations, fire and energy requirements | Determines programme risk and whether the proposed use is permissible. |
| What will the work cost over its life? | Capital cost, surveys, temporary works, maintenance, replacement and energy assumptions | Prevents a low initial price from hiding expensive operation or rework. |
| How predictable is delivery? | Intrusive surveys, access, occupant interfaces, utilities and procurement route | Existing-building unknowns can materially affect contingency and completion dates. |
| What are the carbon impacts? | A project-level whole-life-carbon assessment with stated boundaries | Allows like-for-like comparison instead of relying on a generic saving percentage. |
| What is the community effect? | Disruption, relocation, local employment, heritage and public-realm effects | May determine acceptability and the practical value of retaining an asset. |
A staged process is usually safer than committing on an outline idea: define the brief, survey the asset, develop at least one new-build and one adaptation option, cost and programme both, assess carbon on the same boundary, then test planning, safety and stakeholder constraints. If the existing building fails a fundamental requirement, retaining it merely to avoid “new-build” can create greater cost, risk or carbon elsewhere.
What would confirm a sustained shift toward adaptation?
No single statistic will settle the question. A sustained shift would be more credible if several measures moved together over multiple years.
- Composition of orders: published data would show repair, maintenance, alteration and conversion growing as a share of total commissioned work, not just in one quarter.
- Pipeline and output: the pattern would persist in delivered output as well as orders, across more than one sector and geography.
- Housing supply mix: conversions and changes of use would make a growing contribution to net additional dwellings, while new-build completions stabilised at a lower share.
- Investment and capability: clients, designers and contractors would consistently procure retrofit expertise, surveys, resident liaison and fabric-upgrade skills at greater scale.
- Policy and finance: planning, building-regulation and funding frameworks would make reuse easier without compromising safety, accessibility or performance.
These signals should be tracked separately. Net additional dwellings are the more comprehensive annual housing-supply measure because they include new-build, conversions, changes of use, gains and losses; they are not interchangeable with starts or completions.
What does “peak new-build” mean for construction businesses?
It means preparing for a broader mix rather than abandoning new construction. Firms that work on existing assets may need stronger diagnostic surveying, temporary works, occupied-site logistics, fire and energy-upgrade knowledge, and transparent change control. New-build capability remains essential for housing, infrastructure and commercial capacity that cannot be supplied through adaptation.
Clients and advisers should also avoid treating refurbishment as automatically simpler. Early intrusive surveys, realistic contingencies and an agreed process for unknown conditions are critical. For new-build, the same discipline applies to ground, utilities, planning and design coordination: a project’s route should follow its requirements and evidence, not a slogan.
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So, are we approaching peak new-build?
Possibly in the composition of some markets, but not as a proven industry-wide peak. England’s completions are below their 2021 high, private new housing was the only Great Britain new-orders sector to fall in 2025, and new work declined in 2026 Q3 while repair and maintenance edged up. Against that, total 2025 new-work value and new orders increased, 2026 starts in England rose, and construction still has substantial unmet needs for new homes, infrastructure and commercial space.
The most accurate conclusion is that construction is becoming a portfolio of new-build, retrofit, conversion, repair and selective replacement. Whether the balance has permanently tipped will require several years of comparable, sector-level data—not one annual value, one quarterly movement or one housing-completions total.
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Will new-build construction disappear if the industry reaches peak new-build?
No. A peak in the share of new-build work would still leave demand for additional homes, transport, utilities, schools, workplaces and other assets. It would describe a changing mix, with adaptation taking a larger proportion of commissions.
Are conversions included in England’s new-build completion figures?
No. New-build starts and completions are specific indicators. Net additional dwellings is broader and includes conversions, changes of use, gains and losses, so it is the better measure for total annual housing supply.
What is the first survey a refurbishment project should commission?
The scope depends on the asset, but a coordinated condition and feasibility investigation should establish structure, fire safety, services, fabric, hazardous materials, access and planning constraints. Intrusive work is often needed before a reliable cost and programme can be set.
How can a client make a fair carbon comparison between reuse and new construction?
Use the same functional brief, life-cycle period and carbon boundary for each option, then disclose retained structure, demolition, materials, transport, operational energy and replacement assumptions. Avoid applying a generic refurbishment-saving percentage to a project without those details.
