Ørsted’s start of construction at Blackwater Solar is a meaningful project milestone, but it does not show that Ørsted shares are cheap. That claim comes from valuation estimates in a Simply Wall St article dated 10 October 2026. Whether those estimates are persuasive depends on more than a low revenue multiple: investors also need to weigh profitability, debt, investment demands and the risks of delivering projects on schedule.
What Ørsted announced at Blackwater Solar
Ørsted announced on 30 September 2026 that construction had started on Blackwater Solar, a 200 MW solar farm in Roosevelt County, New Mexico. The company describes it as its first project in the state. The site is between Portales and Clovis, and Ørsted expects the project to enter commercial operation in late 2027. That date is a forecast, not a completed construction milestone.
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Power contract and project details
Ørsted says the project is backed by a long-term power purchase agreement (PPA) intended to serve growing industrial electricity demand in New Mexico. It also says it sourced the panels from domestic manufacturer First Solar. The announcement does not name the electricity buyer or disclose the PPA price, so it is not possible to judge the contract’s economics from those details alone.
The company estimates annual output equivalent to the electricity use of more than 56,000 homes in Southwest Power Pool territory. This is a household-equivalent estimate, not a count of households contracted to receive power. Ørsted also announced a $100,000 contribution to Playa Lakes Joint Venture for work on an 8.8-acre playa near Melrose, and estimated the project would contribute nearly $18 million in property tax revenue to Roosevelt County over its operating life. The announcement does not state the assumptions behind those estimates or the project’s full lifetime.
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Where the “cheap” valuation claim comes from
The valuation case is separate from the construction news. In its 10 October 2026 article, Simply Wall St reported a share price of DKK 132.45, a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 2.1x, and a model-based discounted cash flow (DCF) value of DKK 252.70 per share. It described the DCF estimate as implying a 47.6% gap from the stated share price and also cited an analyst target of DKK 172.09. These are estimates and a dated market snapshot from that article, not verified future prices or independently rebuilt valuations.
What the two valuation methods say—and leave out
| Measure | What it compares | What a reader should test |
|---|---|---|
| P/S ratio | Market equity value relative to revenue. Simply Wall St reported 2.1x for Ørsted, compared with 2.3x for the European renewable energy industry and 12.4x for its peer group in its 10 October 2026 article. | Revenue does not show how much profit or cash the company generates. A lower multiple is not, by itself, evidence that shares are undervalued. |
| DCF estimate | Simply Wall St’s model valued Ørsted at DKK 252.70 per share in the article’s 10 October 2026 snapshot. | The output depends on forecast cash flows and other model assumptions. The article’s reported output alone is not enough to independently check those assumptions. |
| Analyst target | The article cited a DKK 172.09 target. | A target is an estimate, not a promise or a substitute for examining the underlying forecasts. |
The same Simply Wall St snapshot reported trailing revenue of DKK 83,672 million and a net loss of DKK 3,118 million. Read together, those figures underline the limitation of the P/S comparison: revenue can remain substantial while net earnings are negative. The valuation article itself cautioned that model discounts can reflect execution or funding concerns, and that weak cash generation or project execution could weigh on sentiment.
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What Ørsted’s financial results add to the picture
Ørsted’s H1 2026 announcement provides a more current operating snapshot than its FY2025 results. The company reported higher EBITDA excluding new partnerships and cancellation fees, but lower net profit than in the first half of 2025. It attributed the profit decline mainly to prior-year divestment gains, higher tax and non-cash impairment losses.
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Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →| Measure | Reported figure | Why it matters to the valuation question |
|---|---|---|
| H1 2026 EBITDA, excluding new partnerships and cancellation fees | DKK 15.0 billion, up 8% year over year | Shows the company’s reported operating earnings measure improved against the prior-year period; it is not the same as net profit or free cash flow. |
| H1 2026 net profit | DKK 3.3 billion, compared with DKK 8.2 billion in H1 2025 | Profit fell despite the increase in the stated EBITDA measure. |
| H1 2026 impairments | DKK 2.537 billion | Impairments are non-cash charges when recorded, but they can signal reduced expected value for assets or projects. |
| H1 2026 operating cash flow | DKK 9.124 billion | Cash from operations is relevant to the ability to fund investment and meet obligations. |
| H1 2026 free cash flow | DKK 364 million | Shows that reported operating cash flow should not be confused with cash remaining after investment spending. |
| Net interest-bearing debt at H1 2026 end | DKK 21.960 billion | Debt and financing needs affect the risk borne by equity holders, especially while the company is investing heavily. |
For historical context, Ørsted reported FY2025 EBITDA of DKK 25.1 billion excluding new partnerships and cancellation fees, and net profit of DKK 3.2 billion. It said a rights issue had strengthened its capital structure and that it completed its divestment program earlier than planned. The FY2025 figures are a baseline, not a replacement for the H1 2026 update.
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Returns and investment plans
Ørsted reported a 3.1% return on capital employed (ROCE) for H1 2026, down from 7.5% in the prior-year period. It said the decrease mainly reflected higher capital employed and slightly lower earnings over the 12-month period. Management’s stated targets are an average ROCE of about 11% in 2026–2027 and above 13% in 2028–2030; these are forward targets, not current returns.
The company maintained 2026 EBITDA guidance above DKK 28 billion, excluding new partnerships and cancellation fees, and gross investment guidance of DKK 50–55 billion. It also said it was targeting a modest dividend for FY2026, with the first distribution in 2027, and that the proposed amount would be announced in the 2026 annual report. Guidance and dividend intentions are not achieved results or guaranteed payouts. Ørsted cited its construction program through 2027 and regulatory risks and uncertainties among the factors considered in setting dividends.
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How Blackwater should—and should not—affect the investment case
What the milestone supports
- Construction has started on a 200 MW project in a new state for Ørsted, adding to its operating-project pipeline.
- Ørsted says the project has a long-term PPA and panels sourced from a domestic manufacturer, although the undisclosed buyer and price limit what can be inferred about contract value.
- The expected late-2027 operation date and announced local contribution and tax estimate give investors specific delivery and community-benefit claims to track.
What it does not establish
- The announcement does not disclose project cost, expected returns, the PPA price, or the identity of the offtaker.
- A construction start does not establish that the project will meet its schedule, budget or expected output.
- The project announcement does not validate Simply Wall St’s DCF assumptions or show how much Blackwater contributes to Ørsted’s overall valuation.
For a construction-led business, delivery matters because capital is committed before a project can generate operating revenue. Investors can therefore distinguish a project milestone from a value-creating outcome: monitor progress toward commercial operation, but assess it alongside impairments, cash generation, financing needs and realized returns. Ørsted’s CEO said in the H1 announcement that projects were progressing according to schedule and within planned costs; that is management’s assessment, not independent verification of every project’s delivery.
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The available figures support a question, not a definitive bargain verdict. The 2.1x P/S multiple in the dated Simply Wall St snapshot was below the article’s stated industry and peer comparisons, while its DCF model suggested a substantial gap to its modeled value. But Ørsted’s H1 results also showed lower net profit year over year, impairments, modest free cash flow and substantial investment guidance. Those factors make the valuation sensitive to whether operating cash flows and returns improve as the construction program advances.
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The most useful test is not whether Blackwater makes the shares look cheaper on announcement day. It is whether Ørsted can convert its investment program into durable cash generation and returns without further impairments or execution setbacks. Market prices, analyst targets and valuation-model outputs can change quickly; the cited figures should be treated as the snapshots and estimates they are.
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