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The reliable way to assess a developer is to connect three records: the developer’s complete debt and ownership structure, cash actually entering and leaving each entity, and independent evidence of what each project has built. Review the developer globally, then isolate the subject project. A project can look current on interest payments while an interest reserve is adding unpaid interest to the loan, or appear nearly complete while committed funding is below the cost to finish. Your conclusion should therefore rest on verified balances, recorded security interests, physical inspections, lien and tax searches, and repayment scenarios—not on a single payment-status label or a site visit.
Set the scope before collecting documents
Fix the jurisdiction and “as of” date
Record the country, state or province, municipality, land-registry system, court system and tax authorities that govern the developer and every project. Put an “as of” date on every balance, filing, registry search, inspection report and project-status statement. A company’s debt can change between a quarterly filing and a lender’s current statement; a title search can become stale when a new mortgage or construction lien is recorded.
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Separate reported facts from your own estimates. Label a figure as a filed balance, lender-reported amount, management estimate, independent quantity-surveyor estimate or analyst calculation. Do not present an estimated completion cost or market value as if it were audited.
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The evidence needed for a buyer, lender, contractor, investor, joint-venture partner or public authority is different. State whether you are deciding to lend more money, sign a contract, purchase a unit, accept a settlement, enforce security, or monitor an existing exposure. Then set a materiality threshold for unpaid taxes, claims, delays and cost overruns. This keeps the review focused without ignoring obligations that can rank ahead of you.
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Map every entity, project and obligation
Start with a diagram, not a spreadsheet of isolated numbers. Include the developer, parent companies, subsidiaries, special-purpose vehicles, joint-venture partners, guarantors, lenders, major investors, contractors and entities receiving intercompany payments. For each project, identify the landowner, borrower, registered title holder, construction manager and party that must deliver the completion certificate.
- Obtain corporate filings, organization charts, shareholder information and beneficial-ownership records for the relevant jurisdiction and date.
- Read financing agreements, security instruments, guarantees, amendments, waivers, maturity extensions and intercreditor agreements.
- List intercompany loans, management fees, development fees, cash sweeps, distributions and guarantees. A project may be solvent on its own ledger while cash is being transferred to another entity.
- Identify cross-default clauses. A default by one borrower, guarantor or affiliate may trigger enforcement or a cash trap on the project you are reviewing.
- Record joint-venture consent rights, preferred returns and capital-call obligations. A partner’s failure to fund can leave the project short even when the developer’s consolidated accounts look stronger.
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) says that periodically reviewing a developer’s financial statements can reveal problems in other projects that strain resources and affect the subject loan. Treat the global map as a credit document, not background information.
Build a debt register that shows priority and timing
For every facility and material claim, capture the legal obligation and the conditions that could change repayment. A headline total debt figure is not enough: senior secured debt due next month is a different risk from unsecured debt due after stabilization.
| Debt-register field | What to record | Why it changes the risk assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Borrower and guarantor | Exact legal entity, guarantee scope, joint-and-several wording and any limitation | Shows whose assets and cash can be pursued and whether a guarantee is actually collectible |
| Original commitment and current balance | Committed amount, drawn principal, capitalized interest, fees and undrawn availability, each as of a stated date | Distinguishes remaining capacity from money already owed |
| Seniority and collateral | First or subsequent mortgage, security interests, pledges, assignments, reserves and collateral value | Determines payment priority and the realistic recovery pool |
| Pricing and payment | Fixed or floating rate, floor, default rate, payment dates, amortization and whether interest is paid or capitalized | Reveals how quickly debt grows and whether cash is genuinely servicing it |
| Maturity and options | Legal maturity, extension conditions, notice deadlines, refinancing requirements and lender discretion | A near-term maturity can create a liquidity crisis even when scheduled payments are current |
| Covenants and reserves | Loan-to-value, debt-service coverage, completion tests, minimum liquidity, interest and tax reserves, cash sweeps | Shows when a lender can stop advances or demand remedial action |
| Defaults and waivers | Existing defaults, reservation-of-rights letters, waivers, standstills and amendment history | A waiver may postpone enforcement without curing the underlying problem |
| Other claims | Mezzanine debt, seller financing, tax arrears, trade payables, judgments, litigation claims and guarantees | These liabilities may consume cash or rank ahead of an unsecured creditor |
Reconcile the register to audited financial statements, current management accounts, lender statements and recorded security instruments. If the documents disagree, preserve both figures with their dates and explain the reconciliation; do not silently choose the lower balance.
Reconcile cash flow to identifiable sources
Trace every material inflow
Obtain audited statements, current management accounts and, where available, bank or escrow evidence. Classify cash by source rather than accepting “operating cash flow” as a single line.
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- Unit or land sales, deposits, cancellations and refunds.
- Rent, service charges and other property operating receipts.
- New senior, mezzanine or seller financing, including draw dates and conditions.
- Equity contributions, capital calls, grants and related-party advances.
- Asset disposals and transfers between affiliates.
The SEC has said real-estate disclosures should identify positive or negative operating cash flows and the source of distributions, including offering proceeds or debt. A distribution funded by a new loan is not the same as a distribution funded by recurring operations.
Trace the outflows and related-party movements
- Land acquisition, construction contracts, retention, consultants and professional fees.
- Interest, principal, lender fees, taxes, insurance, utilities and permits.
- Payroll, overhead, sales commissions, marketing and legal costs.
- Distributions, development fees, intercompany loans and payments to affiliates.
- Refunds, settlements, penalties and other nonrecurring uses.
Match bank transfers to invoices, draw certificates, payroll records, tax receipts and approved contracts. Investigate round-dollar transfers, unexplained related-party payments, advances that never reach the site and withdrawals shortly before a covenant test.
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Calculate liquidity runway
Use a monthly schedule that starts with unrestricted cash and adds only cash that is legally and practically available. Exclude restricted reserves, presale deposits that cannot be spent, and undrawn facilities whose conditions have not been met. A simple runway calculation is:
monthly liquidity runway = available cash and committed, drawable funding ÷ average monthly cash burn
Build the burn rate from actual recent outflows, then adjust for known tax dates, interest resets, payroll, insurance, construction milestones and debt maturities. Show a range rather than a false point estimate when receipts depend on uncertain sales or refinancing.
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Compare operating cash flow with scheduled principal and interest. The OCC recommends identifying major cash sources and whether they depend on continuing property sales or capital infusions. If the answer is “yes,” test what happens when sales stop and no new equity arrives.
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Obtain a complete cost-to-complete package
Request the approved budget, latest cost report, committed contracts, change orders, contingency, amount spent, undrawn loan proceeds, remaining cost, schedule, permits, presales or leases and completion-certificate requirements. Ask for the date each document was prepared and who certified it.
| Evidence | Questions to answer |
|---|---|
| Budget and cost report | What has been spent, committed and forecast? Are escalation, taxes, financing costs, professional fees and contingency included? |
| Contracts and change orders | Which packages are fixed-price? What claims, extensions, retention and termination rights exist? |
| Funding | How much is undrawn, and what conditions—equity first, inspections, presales or covenant compliance—must be met before a draw? |
| Schedule and permits | What is the critical path? Which permits, inspections, utility connections and certificates remain? |
| Revenue plan | Which presales, leases or refinancing assumptions support repayment, and are deposits legally available for construction? |
Compare physical progress with money drawn
Use independent inspections, dated photographs, quantity-surveyor reports, permit records, inspection sign-offs, invoices and draw certificates. Compare the physical percentage complete with cumulative draws and certified work. A large gap can indicate front-loaded costs, defective work, inflated certifications, diverted proceeds or a budget that omitted major scopes.
The OCC states that an established process must continually monitor each project’s progress, costs and loan disbursements, with periodic physical inspection and comparison of work performed with design and budget. For a stalled site, obtain a revised schedule and a written explanation of every idle period.
Look for completion threats
- Contractor or supplier invoices that remain unpaid despite lender-funded draws.
- Construction liens, lien notices, payment-bond claims or missing lien waivers.
- Draws transferred to another project or affiliate without documented approval.
- Deferred equity contributions, exhausted contingency or repeated budget rebaselines.
- Expired permits, failed inspections, unavailable utilities or a terminated main contractor.
- Presales or leases that can be cancelled, are below break-even pricing or require costly incentives.
An unfinished project is both a construction problem and a funding problem. Compare remaining cost plus debt service with cash on hand and committed, drawable funding. Identify who must fund overruns: the borrower, guarantor, joint-venture partner, lender, contractor or purchaser. If no party has a binding obligation and capacity to cover the gap, completion is not a credible assumption.
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Check whether “current” payments conceal repayment stress
Payment status describes contract performance on a date; it does not prove that the project can repay principal. Federal Reserve guidance on commercial real-estate accommodations and workouts warns that interest can be capitalized into an interest reserve so a project remains contractually current while “the repayment of principal may be in jeopardy.” Compare the payment ledger with actual operating cash, reserve balances and the source of each payment.
- Confirm whether interest is paid from property income, an operating account, a guarantor, a new draw or an interest reserve.
- Check when the reserve will be exhausted and whether reserve replenishment is a covenant condition.
- Recalculate collateral value using current market evidence, not the original appraisal alone.
- Test whether a sale or refinance can close by the legal maturity after costs, taxes, commissions and senior debt.
- Review extension fees, maturity waivers and cross-default rights; an extension can defer rather than solve the problem.
Use debt-service coverage correctly
For an income-producing project, calculate annual debt-service coverage ratio as cash generated after operating costs, maintenance and tax divided by debt due in that year. This is the formulation described in UK government guidance for project-finance stress testing. State the period, debt included and whether the numerator is historical, forecast or stabilized. Do not substitute gross rent for cash available for debt service.
Know the Federal Reserve CRE scope test
Federal Reserve interagency commercial-real-estate guidance from 2006 defines covered income-producing CRE loans as those for which at least 50 percent or more of repayment comes from third-party, nonaffiliated rental income or sale, refinancing or permanent-financing proceeds. Apply that definition to the relevant loan and date; it is not a universal default threshold or a conclusion that a particular developer is insolvent.
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Run searches in the land registry, secured-transactions registry, court systems, insolvency records and tax authorities for the applicable jurisdiction, stating the search date. Obtain a current title commitment or equivalent report rather than relying on an old closing copy.
- Confirm the registered owner, legal description, easements, restrictions, mortgages and security interests.
- Verify that the lender’s stated priority matches the recorded instruments and that releases or subordinations were properly filed.
- Search for construction liens, supplier claims, tax liens, judgments, foreclosure notices, insolvency filings and material litigation against the borrower, owner, guarantors and project.
- Request sworn payment statements, conditional and final lien waivers, payment-bond information, insurance certificates and evidence of tax and utility payment.
- Check permits, inspection reports, stop-work orders, environmental notices and occupancy or completion certificates.
- Record claim amount, filing date, claimant, status, priority and whether a release or settlement is documented.
A lien, missed payment or unfinished site is a risk indicator, not by itself proof of fraud or insolvency. Establish the legal effect and amount through qualified counsel and the relevant registry or court record.
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Model repayment under base and downside cases
Prepare at least five cases and document every assumption. Compare cash available plus committed funding with remaining construction cost, operating expenses, taxes and debt service.
| Case | Change to test | Evidence to review |
|---|---|---|
| Base completion | Current schedule, budget and contracted sales or leases | Independent cost report, permits, draw history and binding contracts |
| Delayed completion | Completion moves beyond the stated date, increasing interest, insurance, taxes and overhead | Critical-path schedule, contractor capacity and lender extension terms |
| Cost overrun | Contingency is consumed and remaining packages rise in price | Open change orders, escalation clauses, claims and quantity-surveyor estimate |
| Slower sales or leasing | Absorption falls, incentives rise or deposits are cancelled | Executed contracts, cancellation rights, comparable market evidence and escrow rules |
| Higher rates | Floating-rate debt resets or hedges expire | Rate index, floor, cap, hedge maturity and reserve requirement |
| Failed refinance or sale | No exit closes at maturity | Current valuation, lender appetite, title condition and net sale proceeds |
For each case, show the month cash runs out, the amount of additional funding required, the party obligated to provide it, the collateral available after senior claims and the likely enforcement or insolvency path. Federal Reserve workout guidance calls for considering collateral, market conditions, guarantor capacity and the borrower’s global obligations, not just the subject project’s forecast.
Compare developers or projects on the same axes
When reviewing more than one project, use a consistent matrix. Do not rank a project “safer” merely because its construction percentage is higher; an almost-finished project with a large maturity and no refinance may be weaker than an earlier-stage project with fully committed funding.
| Comparison axis | Evidence-based measure |
|---|---|
| Liquidity runway | Months until unrestricted cash and legally drawable funding are exhausted |
| Debt maturity and interest burden | Principal due by month, effective rate, capitalized interest and extension conditions |
| Priority | Senior, mezzanine and unsecured claims; recorded collateral and intercreditor rights |
| Guarantor capacity | Verified liquid assets, existing guarantees, debt and enforceability |
| Funding versus cost to complete | Committed and drawable money compared with an independently reviewed remaining-cost estimate |
| Progress versus draws | Inspected physical completion compared with cumulative certified expenditure |
| Presales or lease absorption | Binding contracts, cancellation exposure, pricing and deposit restrictions |
| Collateral and market value | Current valuation less senior debt, taxes, selling costs and completion costs |
| Title, lien, tax and litigation status | Search date, claim priority, unpaid amounts and release evidence |
| Exit credibility | Documented sale, lease-up or refinance path under base and downside assumptions |
Interpret warning signs without overclaiming
- Consolidated cash rises while project-level bank balances fall and intercompany receivables grow.
- Debt is described as current, but payments come from reserves, new borrowing or related parties rather than operations.
- Draws materially exceed inspected progress, or invoices and lien waivers cannot be matched to payments.
- Cost-to-complete is repeatedly revised upward while contingency and equity contributions decline.
- Extensions and waivers multiply without a credible sale, lease-up or refinance date.
- Tax arrears, utility disconnections, stop-work orders or court claims threaten the site’s ability to operate.
- A guarantor’s net worth is stated but not supported by current, unencumbered assets and debt schedules.
- Management refuses current accounts, bank evidence, title updates, inspection access or a project-level cash reconciliation.
Each sign requires corroboration. A delayed permit may be administrative; a lien may be disputed or already bonded off. Preserve the source, date and legal status before drawing a conclusion about misconduct, default or insolvency.
Turn the review into a defensible conclusion
Write the final assessment in four parts: verified facts, unresolved gaps, quantified downside exposure and the decision consequence. State the developer’s total debt and the subject project’s debt separately; identify maturities and collateral; reconcile cash sources and uses; state inspected physical progress and remaining cost; list title, lien, tax and litigation findings; and show which repayment case fails first.
Use conditional language where evidence is incomplete: “The project appears funded through the stated completion date if the undrawn facility remains available and the lender waives the covenant,” is materially different from “The project is fully funded.” Identify the document or inspection that would resolve each uncertainty and set a deadline for obtaining it.
Decisions involving enforcement, investor action, major commitments, insolvency or title priority require qualified legal, accounting, title, engineering and insolvency advice in the applicable jurisdiction. The purpose of this workflow is to expose the facts and funding gap those advisers must analyze, not to replace their advice.
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