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The U.S. construction forecast for 2026 is now negative: FMI’s Q4 2026 North American Engineering and Construction Outlook projects $2.167 trillion in annual U.S. construction spending, down 3.4% after flat spending in 2025. That is a forecast, not a final tally of 2026 activity. It also does not mean every construction business or project type is contracting: FMI expects growth in only four of 19 tracked segments, with especially different outlooks for conservation and development, religious construction, office (including data centers), and power.
For owners, contractors, and suppliers, the practical reading is selective demand under pressure—not a single national trend. Forecasts issued earlier in 2026 were less negative, while contractor backlog and long equipment lead times show why a sector’s outlook, its current pipeline, and its ability to deliver projects are separate questions.
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What is the construction forecast for 2026?
FMI’s Q4 2026 North American Engineering and Construction Outlook is the latest forecast discussed in the cited Building Design + Construction coverage. As reported by Building Design + Construction, it projects U.S. construction spending of $2.167 trillion in 2026, a 3.4% decline following flat spending in 2025. The estimate covers U.S. construction spending; it should not be confused with a forecast of starts, contractor revenue, employment, or a completed year-end spending figure.
The forecast’s most important feature is the split between the overall total and individual segments. FMI projects growth in four of 19 segments, meaning 15 are not forecast to grow in that outlook. A national decline can therefore coexist with strong demand in selected markets, and a company’s exposure to those markets may matter more than the headline alone.
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The cited coverage reports the direction and selected segment estimates, but not the full underlying table or methodology. Read the figures below as estimates reported from FMI’s outlook, not as independently verified project-level data or guaranteed outcomes.
Which construction sectors are growing in 2026?
FMI’s Q4 outlook identifies four growth segments: conservation and development, religious construction, office (including data centers), and power. Conservation and development has the largest reported growth rate, while power stands out for its longer-term spending projection.
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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches| Segment | FMI Q4 2026 reported forecast | What the estimate indicates |
|---|---|---|
| Conservation and development | Up 25.3% | The strongest reported segment growth in the cited figures. |
| Storm-protection-related conservation and development activity | Up 27% | FMI links the activity to Gulf Coast U.S. Army Corps of Engineers projects beginning. |
| Religious construction | Up 18.1% | A projected increase within a market otherwise expected to contract overall. |
| Office, including data centers | Up 13.7% | The category explicitly includes data centers; it is not a separate office-only estimate. |
| Power | Up 4.9% | FMI also projects power-sector spending reaching $273 billion by 2030, with 8% growth in 2027. |
Prices checked November 2026.
All growth rates above are estimates from FMI’s Q4 2026 outlook as reported by Building Design + Construction. They should be interpreted within the outlook’s own segment definitions and forecast period. In particular, “office, including data centers” is a combined reported category here; the 13.7% figure should not be presented as a standalone forecast for conventional office buildings.
The storm-protection figure also has a specific context. FMI’s reported 27% growth estimate concerns storm-protection-related conservation and development activity, associated with Gulf Coast U.S. Army Corps of Engineers projects beginning. It is not a claim that every coastal market, flood-control program, or infrastructure contractor will experience equivalent growth.
Power presents a different time horizon. The reported 4.9% is the Q4 outlook’s 2026 segment growth estimate; the $273 billion figure is projected U.S. power-sector spending by 2030, and the 8% figure is a 2027 growth projection. Those are not interchangeable numbers. The longer-range spending projection may indicate a market with continued investment potential, but it does not establish which individual projects will proceed, where the work will occur, or when a particular contractor will win it.
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Why did construction forecasts change during 2026?
FMI’s outlook became more negative between its Q3 and Q4 forecast vintages, while AIA’s July consensus estimate showed a smaller projected decline. These are distinct estimates from different organizations and dates—not three simultaneous measurements of what 2026 spending has already been.
| Forecast vintage | Publisher and geography | Reported 2026 estimate | Scope and measure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | FMI; North American outlook, with U.S. estimate reported | $2.167 trillion in U.S. spending, down 3.4% | Annual U.S. construction spending |
| Q3 2026; reported August 7, 2026 | FMI; U.S. estimate reported | $2.214 trillion, down just over 1% | Annual U.S. construction spending |
| July 2026 consensus; reported July 21, 2026 | AIA Consensus Construction Forecast; U.S. construction | Spending down 0.3% in 2026; up 3.0% in 2027 | Consensus forecast of construction spending, with AIA’s sector framing |
The Q3 FMI estimate was reported by Building Design + Construction; AIA’s July estimate was reported in its coverage of the AIA consensus forecast. The table places them side by side for context, but it does not make them directly comparable in every respect: they have different forecast dates, publishers, methodologies, and potentially different sector assumptions.
FMI’s change from down just over 1% in Q3 to down 3.4% in Q4 is a revision in the outlook, not a record of a 2.4-point observed fall in spending between quarters. Nor does the later vintage prove that the earlier estimate was “wrong”: forecasts incorporate information and assumptions available at the time they are issued. The cited coverage does not provide enough detail to attribute the entire revision to one cause.
AIA’s July forecast should likewise retain its own identity. It projected a 0.3% decline in 2026 and 3.0% growth in 2027. The January 2026 AIA forecast had instead projected 1.0% growth in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, according to the same reporting. That shift from a positive 2026 estimate to a slight decline demonstrates how much the near-term outlook changed over the year; it should not be blended with FMI’s estimates into a single averaged number.
AIA’s report summary describes the market as divided between activity connected to public funding, healthcare demand, and AI-related investment, and more interest-rate-sensitive or discretionary sectors. Its account also points to high interest rates and persistent inflation as pressures that cool consumer demand, tighten financing, and lead developers to rethink or delay projects. This is AIA’s reported explanation and framing, not a claim that those factors have the same impact on every segment or firm.
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Does the national decline mean construction is in recession?
Not by itself. FMI’s 3.4% decline is a forecast for total U.S. construction spending, while the same outlook expects four segments to grow. It signals a weaker aggregate spending outlook, but does not establish that all regions, project types, or contractors are shrinking.
For planning, the distinction is material. A contractor concentrated in a forecast-growth segment may face a different opportunity set from one concentrated in the 15 segments not projected to grow. Even within a growth segment, a forecast is not a project award: timing, financing, permitting, procurement, and a firm’s own backlog still shape near-term workload. These estimates do not quantify those company-specific outcomes.
It is also important not to substitute one economic measure for another. A spending forecast concerns expected construction outlays over a period. Contractor backlog is a survey-based measure of work in the pipeline. Equipment lead time measures the time between ordering and delivery, while an expected price increase concerns cost. Each can affect business decisions, but none independently confirms the others.
What do contractor backlogs say about demand?
ABC’s October 2026 survey points to a substantial but easing pipeline among surveyed U.S. contractors. The Associated Builders and Contractors reported an average backlog of 8.1 months in October, down 0.6 months from September and 0.3 months from October 2025, in coverage published November 10, 2026.
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This survey helps explain how broad national forecasts can coexist with a busier pipeline for some firms. It does not mean every data-center contractor has 11.5 months of secured work, nor that the 7.6-month figure predicts a specific company’s future revenue. These are group averages from a survey, not guarantees or spending forecasts. A contractor should compare the survey’s direction with its own signed work, backlog conversion schedule, client concentration, and the sectors it actually serves.
Data centers are a particularly important source of divergence in the cited reports. FMI’s Q3 outlook projected data-center construction growth of 21.4% to $60 billion, while Skanska’s report summary says data centers rose from about 1.7% of private nonresidential building spending in 2019 to about 5.4% in 2025. These figures come from different measures and forecast vintages: the Q3 FMI number is a 2026 construction estimate, whereas Skanska’s percentages describe historical shares of private nonresidential building spending. They show the sector’s growing weight and projected momentum, not a like-for-like comparison with FMI’s Q4 combined office category.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What could limit growth in power and data-center construction?
Strong demand does not guarantee smooth project delivery. Skanska’s Summer 2026 Construction Market Trends Report, as summarized by Building Design + Construction, reports structural-steel lead times of 40–50 weeks in some markets and HVAC equipment lead times of up to 52 weeks. The same report expects generator prices to rise 8%–10% and HVAC equipment prices 10%–12% in 2026.
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These are market-report estimates, not universal prices or delivery schedules. The steel lead time is explicitly limited to some markets; the HVAC figure is an upper reported lead time, not a promise that every order takes a year. The price increases are Skanska’s expectations for 2026, not a verified change in every supplier’s quotation. Project specifications, location, order timing, availability, and contract terms can make actual conditions differ.
For owners and contractors pursuing work in power or data centers, the implication is to treat procurement as a schedule and cost risk alongside demand. A project with a favorable sector forecast can still face delayed commissioning or budget pressure if essential equipment is ordered late or pricing assumptions fail to reflect current quotations. The source material does not establish a single mitigation plan or quantify how much these constraints reduce forecast growth; decisions need project-specific supplier information.
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How should contractors and owners use the forecast?
Use the national forecast as context, then test it against the work your organization can actually pursue and deliver. The figures support a practical sequence rather than a one-number decision:
- Identify the relevant market segment. Determine whether your pipeline maps to one of FMI’s reported growth areas, a segment outside the four expected to grow, or a narrower submarket such as storm-protection projects or data centers. Avoid treating an inclusive category like office (including data centers) as a forecast for conventional offices alone.
- Keep forecast dates and measures distinct. Label estimates with the publisher and vintage. Do not average FMI Q3, FMI Q4, and AIA July into a supposed consensus, and do not compare a spending forecast directly with backlog months or equipment lead times.
- Check your own backlog quality. An industry average is not a firm-level commitment. Review what is signed, when work is scheduled to convert into revenue, client and sector concentration, and how much of the pipeline depends on projects that could be postponed.
- Revisit cost and schedule assumptions. For equipment-heavy work, use current supplier quotes and delivery information rather than applying Skanska’s market-wide estimates mechanically. The reported 40–50-week steel lead times and up-to-52-week HVAC lead time are caution indicators, not project-specific schedules.
- Stress-test the downside and upside separately. A flat or declining national total may mask opportunities in a growth segment, but high growth rates on a smaller or specialized base do not automatically replace lost work elsewhere. Evaluate both exposure and execution capacity before expanding staffing or commitments.
This framework is especially useful because the forecasts differ. FMI’s Q4 view is the most negative of the headline estimates in the available data, but AIA’s July projection and FMI’s own Q3 estimate show that the expected path was revised as the year progressed. That uncertainty is a reason to track updates and project-specific indicators, not to dismiss all forecasts or treat the latest one as a certain outcome.
What is the most reliable way to read the 2026 outlook?
Give the latest FMI Q4 estimate priority as the latest U.S. spending outlook reported in the cited coverage, while retaining its status as a forecast. Then use the segment estimates to understand where growth is concentrated, the ABC backlog survey to understand reported work in contractors’ pipelines, and Skanska’s market report to flag equipment and delivery constraints.
Those sources answer different questions. FMI forecasts annual spending; AIA provides a separate consensus forecast and sector framing; ABC reports survey backlog; Skanska summarizes selected supply-chain conditions. Together, they suggest a 2026 market with a falling national spending forecast, a small number of projected growth segments, a longer pipeline for data-center-exposed contractors, and meaningful delivery risks for long-lead equipment. They do not establish the final 2026 result or guarantee that any individual project will advance.
Frequently Asked Questions
When will the final 2026 U.S. construction spending figure be available?
The figures here are forecasts issued during 2026, not a final annual accounting. A final figure depends on completed reporting for the full calendar year, so an outlook published before year-end should not be treated as the observed total.
Is a construction spending forecast the same as a forecast of construction starts?
No. Spending estimates concern the value of construction activity over a period, while starts track projects beginning construction. They can move differently because project timing, duration, and spending profiles differ.
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Does the reported data-center backlog mean data-center projects are guaranteed to proceed?
No. ABC’s 11.5-month figure is a survey average for contractors with data-center work, not a guarantee for each respondent or every planned project. Owners should distinguish signed contracts and funded work from prospective projects.
Are the 2026 equipment price increases fixed across the United States?
No. The generator and HVAC increases are Skanska report expectations summarized in secondary coverage, not universal supplier prices. Actual quotes and delivery schedules can vary by market, order timing, specification, and contract.
