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Bettesworth Construction
ABS building activity

Australian Home Construction Is Rising, but Accord Target Still Out of Reach

Australian dwelling starts and completions rose in June quarter 2026, but only 308,000 homes were complete toward the Accord’s 1.2 million target through March—and the Council forecasts the goal will be reached in December 2030.

By Bettesworth Construction Team 4 min read

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Australian homebuilding picked up in the June quarter of 2026: builders started 52,201 dwellings and completed 47,168, both higher than a year earlier. But starts are not finished homes, and the latest national tally of completed homes remains far behind the National Housing Accord’s goal of 1.2 million new homes by June 2029. The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council’s August 2026 forecast puts that target’s completion in December quarter 2030.

What has risen in the latest construction data?

The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ June 2026 Building Activity release, published on 7 October 2026, reports stronger starts and completions in seasonally adjusted terms.

Measure June quarter 2026 Change from March quarter 2026 Change from June quarter 2025
Total dwelling commencements 52,201 Up 7.0% Up 14.4%
Total dwelling completions 47,168 Up 5.8% Up 15.9%

Private-sector houses accounted for 31,707 commencements, up 11.6% over the quarter and 20.7% year on year. Other private residential commencements were 19,126, down 0.1% over the quarter but up 4.6% year on year. Completions included 27,039 new private-sector houses and 19,018 other private residential dwellings.

Why rising starts do not mean the target is being met

Housing activity measures describe different stages of the building pipeline:

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  • Approvals indicate permission to build; they are an earlier signal, not a count of homes started or delivered.
  • Commencements count dwellings whose construction has started.
  • Completions count delivered dwellings. This is the relevant measure for assessing homes completed toward the Accord target.

The Council’s August 2026 report says approvals were 26% above the pre-Accord comparison quarter and commencements 15% higher. Those are encouraging pipeline indicators, but the completion tally available to the Council covered only the period through March quarter 2026.

How far behind is Australia on the National Housing Accord goal?

The National Housing Accord target is 1.2 million new homes over five years, ending in June 2029. The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council’s August 2026 Quarterly Report counted 308,000 gross dwelling units completed from June quarter 2024 through March quarter 2026. That is 26% of the target after seven of the 20 target-period quarters.

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The Council forecasts the 1.2 million target will be reached in December quarter 2030, one quarter later than its estimate in the State of the Housing System 2026 report. That projected date is about 18 months beyond the Accord’s June 2029 deadline. It is a modelled forecast, not an observed outcome or a commitment: the Council says it depends on leading indicators and broader market expectations and is subject to significant uncertainty and future revision.

There is a timing mismatch in the latest figures: the ABS’s starts and completions above cover June quarter 2026, while the Council’s cumulative target tally ends in March quarter 2026. The more recent quarterly data show movement in the right direction, but they do not change the period covered by the Council’s reported cumulative total.

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What is holding housing delivery back?

The Council identifies construction costs and market conditions as risks to delivery, while cautioning that no single factor establishes the cause of the target shortfall.

Construction costs and project feasibility

House-construction costs rose 2% in June quarter 2026 and stood 51% above their pre-pandemic level, according to the Council. It says higher fuel and petrochemical prices flowing through from conflict in the Middle East contributed to recent cost pressure, and that higher costs may make some projects financially unfeasible.

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Market sentiment and interest rates

The Council anticipates softer market sentiment and says recent interest-rate increases are likely to defer some housing construction. These are its assessments of risks to future activity, not proof that either factor alone explains the gap between completed homes and the target.

Construction times and real costs

The Council reports that construction times in 2024–25 were 10% faster than in 2023–24, while real house-construction costs were 0.2% higher than when the Accord began, using June-quarter 2026 data. The report says no newer construction-time data were available after the March report. These indicators add context but do not replace the completed-home count or identify a definitive cause for the shortfall.

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How do states and territories compare?

The Council’s August 2026 estimates show differing progress and forecast dates for reaching each jurisdiction’s share of the Accord target. The target shares use population shares from when the Accord was agreed.

Jurisdiction Share of target completed Forecast quarter to reach target share
New South Wales Not stated in the source table summary March 2032
Victoria Not stated in the source table summary December 2029
Queensland Not stated in the source table summary March 2031
Western Australia Not stated in the source table summary December 2029
South Australia Not stated in the source table summary March 2031
Tasmania Not stated in the source table summary June 2034
Australian Capital Territory 34% December 2029
Northern Territory 9% After 2034
Australia 26% December 2030

The Council’s August report summary gives completion-share endpoints of 9% for the Northern Territory and 34% for the ACT; it does not state the other jurisdictional percentages in the figures available here. Dates and shares should not be read as rankings of current building quality or effort. The Council notes that trajectories can differ with the mix of detached and higher-density homes moving through the pipeline, as well as leading indicators and broader market conditions. The jurisdictional estimates carry significant uncertainty.

A useful comparison should keep several dimensions separate: the share approved versus completed (which may refer to different periods), recent rolling changes in approvals and completions, the forecast quarter for reaching the target share, and the housing mix in the pipeline.

How certain are the June-quarter figures?

The ABS reports 248,733 dwellings under construction in June quarter 2026, in original terms. These are work in progress, not completed homes. The ABS says the June-quarter estimates draw on responses representing approximately 85% of the value of building work done during the quarter, below the long-term response-rate average. Estimates may be revised as responses for the next quarter are processed; the ABS scheduled final June-quarter data for its edition on 13 January 2027.

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The Council’s 308,000 figure counts gross dwelling units completed; it is not a measure of net growth in housing stock or of changes in affordability. Its forecast date is likewise an estimate rather than a guaranteed delivery date.

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