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Access Point Financial’s 2026 report describes a hotel-development market where ground-up construction faces high costs, comparatively expensive financing and selective lending, even as hotel loan volume has risen. It also points to renovation and brand conversion as alternatives, with extended-stay projects and a luxury pipeline standing out against generally subdued new development. The figures below are from APF’s report as summarized by LODGING on October 6, 2026; the summary does not detail the underlying datasets or methods.
What APF’s report says about hotel development
APF’s five-page report, “I Will Gladly Pay You Tuesday for a Hamburger Today: The State of Hotel Construction Loans,” looks back at hotel construction lending since the early 2000s, describes current conditions and offers predictions and suggestions. Its central picture is mixed: new development is broadly sluggish, but some property types and locations may still offer opportunities.
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Rather than build from the ground up, some developers are pursuing “flips and PIPs”—brand conversions and property improvement plans. APF presents this as a way to create a like-new product while avoiding some of the costs associated with financing new construction. It is an alternative, not a guarantee of lower total project costs or better returns.
Where activity stands out
Extended-stay hotels are described as an exception to weak new-development activity. APF attributes their appeal to lower operating overhead and resilient demand. The report also counted 59 luxury hotels under construction at the close of Q1 2026. That figure describes the pipeline at that point; it does not establish how many projects were completed or their current status.
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Construction costs and financing rates
APF’s report cites the Turner Building Cost Index, which LODGING describes as tracking U.S. non-residential construction costs. The index rose 8% in 2022 and 6% in 2023, following average growth of 1.9% in 2020–2021. It reached 1,552 in Q2 2026, up 5.15% year over year. These figures indicate continued cost pressure, but the index is not a hotel-specific estimate of what any individual project will cost.
For July 2026, the report put 10-year fixed hotel CMBS rates at 5.85%–6.85%, compared with 5.50%–6.30% for multifamily or industrial. Hotel construction and bridge financing was reported at roughly 8%–10%, depending on structure and leverage.
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| Financing category | Rate reported by APF for July 2026 |
|---|---|
| 10-year fixed hotel CMBS | 5.85%–6.85% |
| 10-year fixed multifamily or industrial CMBS | 5.50%–6.30% |
| Hotel construction and bridge financing | Roughly 8%–10%, depending on structure and leverage |
These are market ranges in APF’s report, not quotes for a particular borrower, project or lender. The summary does not provide loan terms, fees, leverage limits, recourse requirements or enough detail to compare financing offers or recommend a structure.
Why fewer new rooms are being built
The report says U.S. hotel supply growth fell from a pre-pandemic year-over-year average of 1.3% to 0.5% as of early 2025, while rooms under construction remained below pre-COVID levels. It identifies several pressures that help explain the restrained pipeline:
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- Higher construction costs: Rising costs make it harder to keep projects within budget.
- Expensive financing: Hotel construction and bridge rates were reported above the comparison rates for multifamily or industrial financing.
- Selective lending: APF describes tighter lender selectivity alongside the higher cost of capital.
- Refinancing demands: Existing loans coming due can absorb cash flow or require borrowers to replace debt on less favorable terms.
- Compressed operating margins: Healthy-looking average daily rates (ADR) or revenue per available room (RevPAR) do not necessarily translate into stronger property-level profit.
Maturing loans and debt service
APF’s report puts roughly $48 billion in CMBS-era hotel loans due to mature in 2025–2026. It says refinancing often involved debt service about 40% higher than on the original loan. The summary does not specify the loan sample or calculation behind that comparison, so the 40% figure should be read as the report’s characterization rather than a forecast for every borrower.
Revenue is not the same as operating profit
Gross operating profit per room remained near 90% of 2019 levels, according to the report, even where ADR or RevPAR appeared healthy. APF points to cost of capital, tighter lender selectivity and margin compression; construction inflation is one factor among several. The distinction matters to development decisions: strong room revenue metrics alone may not show whether a hotel can support construction debt and ongoing operating costs.
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Loan activity is rising despite a restrained pipeline
Hotel loan dollar volume rose 85% year over year in Q1 2026 and a further 19% year over year in Q2 2026, according to APF’s report. Those increases measure loan volume, not the number of new hotel projects or the availability of construction financing to every developer. They can coexist with subdued supply growth if activity includes refinancing, acquisitions or other loan purposes; the LODGING summary does not break down the volume by use.
What the findings mean for construction versus renovation
APF’s account does not make a universal case for building new or renovating existing properties. Instead, it describes trade-offs shaped by a project’s cost, location, financing and operating outlook. Brand conversion and renovation may avoid some expenses associated with ground-up financing, while new construction could address areas where existing hotels are aging or outdated.
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Dana Tsakanikas, APF’s chief investment officer, said the company remained bullish on the “Build, Baby, Build” strategy, citing the success rate of its existing client activity and the advantage of bringing new hotels into markets with aging competition. That is APF’s view, not an independent project-performance finding in the article. For a developer, the relevant question is whether a specific site and business plan can support its costs and debt—not whether either approach is preferable in general.
How to read the report’s figures
LODGING’s October 6, 2026 article is a summary of APF’s five-page report, not a detailed presentation of its underlying data. It does not identify the datasets or methods behind most of the figures. Treat the reported rates and market statistics as dated indicators from APF, rather than independently verified benchmarks or current loan offers.
The summary also does not provide named lender offers or the detail needed for a financing recommendation. It offers a snapshot of the pressures and activity APF sees in hotel construction lending, but a project-level decision requires terms and assumptions specific to the borrower, property and proposed work.
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