The City of Stirling’s trackless tram business case estimates a capital cost of $864 million at 90 per cent confidence for a proposed service between Glendalough Train Station and Scarborough Beach. The City reported a benefit-cost ratio of 1.96 and nearly $600 million in net economic benefit over 30 years. These are forecasts in a business case—not a final construction price, approved budget or proof that the project will be built.
What the Stirling trackless tram business case proposes
The proposal is a mid-tier public transport system along the Scarborough Beach Road Activity Corridor, linking Glendalough Train Station with Scarborough Beach. The City of Stirling says it completed the business case in October 2024 and published it through its Trackless Trams Business Case project page.
The City commissioned the work in two packages. ARUP assessed the feasibility and scope of medium-capacity transit options; SMEC developed the business case, including project definition, planning, engineering, sustainability, delivery approach, risks and opportunities. The City’s summary says ARUP identified commercially available CRRC trackless tram vehicles as the most suitable for this corridor. That is a corridor-specific assessment, not a general finding that trackless trams are preferable everywhere.
What the headline figures mean
In its 31 October 2024 announcement, the City reported the business case’s headline estimates. They describe predicted costs and economic effects, not observed results.
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| Measure | What the City reported | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Estimated capital cost | $864 million at 90 per cent confidence | A business-case estimate, not an approved construction budget or final price. |
| Benefit-cost ratio | 1.96 | The City’s reported model result; the summary does not provide the full assumptions or sensitivity analysis needed to independently reproduce it. |
| Net economic benefit | Nearly $600 million over 30 years | A forecast attributed to the business case, not a realised gain. |
| Estimated annual cost of inaction | $50.8 million per year | The City’s estimate of the economic cost of leaving corridor transport issues unaddressed. |
The City’s announcement calls the estimate $864 million; the assignment’s rounded $860 million wording is a shorthand. Mayor Mark Irwin also characterized the figure as low compared with “comparable light rail systems,” but the cited City materials do not establish a like-for-like comparison of project scope, location or cost basis. Treat that comparison as the Mayor’s view, not an independently verified cost benchmark. See the City’s 31 October 2024 announcement.
How the case compared transport options
The City says SMEC considered light rail and bus rapid transit alongside trackless trams, and concluded that trackless trams offered the best balance of cost and benefits for the corridor. That conclusion belongs to this business case; it should not be taken as a universal ranking of transit modes.
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The assessment scope included factors beyond headline capital cost:
- Integration with other transport modes and service performance.
- Disruption to existing infrastructure, local traffic, businesses and the community.
- Ease of implementation and compliance.
- Land-use and urban-revitalisation effects, along with delivery risks and opportunities.
The City commissioned Urbis to consider potential land-use effects. Its project summary describes anticipated support for compact growth, housing supply and economic outcomes. These are possible effects, not guaranteed results. The City’s published summaries do not provide enough option-by-option detail to reconstruct the full comparative model.
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Is the project approved, and who is paying?
The available City material describes a proposal backed by Council advocacy, not a construction decision. Council endorsed or noted the business case and resolved to share it with State and Federal governments while advocating implementation. The cited sources do not establish construction approval, committed construction funding or a final procurement decision.
The Australian Government provided $2 million for developing the business case. The City says $135,000 of that allocation was permitted for a vehicle trial. Neither amount is evidence that construction funding has been committed.
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What the 2023 vehicle trial tested
A trackless tram was trialled in November 2023. The City says technical work before and during the trial examined charging and battery performance, sensor reliability, obstacle detection, communications, manoeuvrability and user experience. It reports that Tiger Spider conducted field testing for partner ITSG against Australian Design Rules, the Disability Standards for Accessible Public Transport and Performance Based Standards.
The City says more than 1,300 people attended its 26 November 2023 community showcase. Separately, the Australian Government’s 2024 Productivity through Infrastructure award page describes more than 1,200 open-day attendees and more than 150 transport and planning experts at the associated symposium. These are differently framed counts from the two publishers, so they should not be combined into one attendance figure.
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How the proposal reached the business case
- 2020: Business-case funding was allocated.
- February 2021: Council endorsed the scope.
- March 2021: ARUP was engaged for feasibility and scope definition.
- December 2021: SMEC was engaged for business-case development.
- November 2023: The vehicle trial took place.
- October 2024: The business case was completed and presented to Council.
The City project page was last updated on 16 April 2026. Its headline summaries do not set out the detailed cost basis, risk ranges or assumptions behind the estimate and benefit-cost ratio; those details should not be inferred from the headline figures.
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