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Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Projects valued above $1 billion account for about one of every four dollars spent on nonresidential construction, according to an estimate attributed to ConstructConnect chief economist Michael Guckes in a Construction Dive report published Oct. 6, 2026. The report does not publish the estimate’s calculation, measurement window or underlying dataset, so it is best read as an attributed industry estimate—not an official government statistic.
What the one-in-four estimate means
The figure describes the concentration of nonresidential construction spending in projects valued at more than $1 billion. It does not mean that one-quarter of all construction projects are megaprojects, nor does the report establish a formal, industry-wide definition of “megaproject” beyond that dollar threshold.
Guckes said traditional indicators are being influenced by the timing and particular characteristics of large projects to an unusual degree: “To a degree not previously experienced, traditional indicators are being swayed more by large project construction timing and peculiarities than from broad economic indicators.” That is a caution about interpreting headline activity measures: a few large starts or delays can shift the picture even when conditions across the rest of the market differ.
Which construction sectors are growing?
The report describes growth as concentrated in infrastructure, power, advanced manufacturing and data centers, rather than broadly distributed across construction. CoStar national director of U.S. industrial analytics Juan Arias said, “The construction market appears strong in areas connected to infrastructure, power, advanced manufacturing and data centers,” while “Other segments are contributing less to overall growth.”
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Digital infrastructure and power
Data centers and power-related investments stand out within the stronger areas. Arias said, “What stands out the most is the concentration of growth in construction and manufacturing around digital infrastructure and power-related investments.” Contractors with data center awards reportedly carried substantially more backlog than contractors without those awards, according to Construction Dive’s account.
Manufacturing is uneven
Stronger digital-related manufacturing work, including semiconductors, contrasts with chemical and automotive activity that remained below year-ago levels in the report. This distinction matters: “manufacturing” is not a single growth trend, and performance depends on the subsector and the projects underway.
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Infrastructure and other segments
Infrastructure and power are among the areas the report identifies as supporting activity. It does not provide comparable spending totals for each segment, so the relative scale of their contributions cannot be quantified from the reported information.
Why monthly construction readings can swing
Construction Dive reports that project starts fell in August after large data center and manufacturing projects boosted July activity. That sequence illustrates how the schedule of a small number of very large projects can affect monthly readings; a month-to-month decline alone does not establish that demand weakened across every construction category.
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Gordian program manager Adam Raimond described the cooldown as anticipated to some degree: “The cooldown wasn’t completely out of left field.” He also noted concern about the source of continued activity if data center growth is not the driver: “[It] may be leaving some worried about where continued activity will come from if it’s not from data center growth.”
Rising input costs complicate strong backlog
Backlog does not eliminate execution or margin risk. Associated Builders and Contractors analysis cited by Construction Dive found construction input prices rose 1.2% month over month in August 2026 and were about 8.9% higher than in August 2025. Metal and petroleum products were among the larger year-over-year increases; switchgear and copper wire also rose meaningfully.
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The report also identifies labor shortages, volatile material prices and supply-chain difficulties as risks to projects and margins. Guckes summarized the contractor challenge in three words: “Margin protection is the key.” The figures describe the reported August conditions and should not be treated as a current price forecast.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What contractors should take from the concentration
For contractors, the reported pattern suggests that choosing which subcategories to pursue can matter more when growth is uneven and large projects exert outsized influence on indicators. The article’s implications are to monitor project starts, backlog, data center planning and input costs alongside broader market readings. They are not a guarantee that any one segment will continue growing or individualized business advice.
- Track segment exposure: distinguish digital infrastructure, power and advanced manufacturing from weaker or slower-moving subsectors rather than treating nonresidential construction as one uniform market.
- Read starts with timing in mind: large project schedules can inflate or depress a monthly reading without representing the direction of every category.
- Pair backlog with cost visibility: a strong pipeline still faces labor, materials and supply-chain constraints that can pressure delivery and margins.
Construction Dive attributes the one-in-four estimate to Guckes but does not publish its calculation or dataset. The figure is therefore useful as a signal of reported market concentration, not as a precise, independently verifiable measurement of the whole construction economy.
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