U.S. home-improvement stocks face a near-term squeeze from high borrowing costs, housing affordability and uncertainty, even as older homes and postponed maintenance support longer-run demand. Investing.com reports that Citi analysts highlighted those pressures after discussions at the HIRI Home Improvement Insights Summit. The available reporting does not quantify how much the stocks have lagged, specify a comparison period or identify a benchmark, so it explains the sector’s headwinds rather than measuring relative performance.
Why are home-improvement stocks under pressure?
The short-term concern is that households and contractors may delay, cancel or scale back work when financing and everyday costs are high. Investing.com’s account of Citi analysts’ comments identifies interest rates, energy costs, housing affordability and geopolitical uncertainty as pressures on the U.S. home-improvement industry in 2026. Those conditions can weigh on expectations for sales and project activity before the longer-term need to maintain homes disappears.
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That is an industry-level explanation, not a complete account of any one company’s share price. The reporting does not provide a stock-return series or compare the sector with a named index or peer group. It therefore does not establish the size of the stocks’ underperformance or show that the same factors affected every home-improvement retailer equally.
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Investing.com reports that HIRI survey figures suggest mortgage-rate lock-in and affordability are influencing household decisions. In that account, rates in the 5% range may act as a psychological threshold for homeowners considering a move; about 80% of mortgaged homeowners reportedly have rates below 6%, and half below 4%. The article also reports that roughly one-third of homeowner projects are delayed or cancelled, while 60% of surveyed professionals had experienced at least one cancelled project.
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These figures should be read as figures reported by Investing.com, not independently validated estimates: the article does not give the survey sample sizes, question wording or field dates. They illustrate possible pressure on mobility and project timing, but they do not establish how much spending has been lost or how long postponements will last.
Why mortgage lock-in can cut both ways
A homeowner with an unusually low mortgage rate may be reluctant to move and take on a more expensive loan. Fewer moves can reduce demand for work associated with buying, selling or adapting a home. Yet staying put also means continuing to live in the existing house, where maintenance and repairs still arise. The same lock-in dynamic can therefore restrain some projects while supporting upkeep over time.
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Work is shifting toward need and tighter budgets
Investing.com says maintenance and repair are taking a larger role as households prioritize necessary work, and that some projects are being reduced in scope. For retailers and contractors, that can mean a different mix of jobs and products rather than a simple stop in activity: a delayed discretionary renovation and a smaller repair job do not have the same effect on spending.
Does the demand outlook point to a recovery?
Not all the forecasts measure the same thing. Economists at the HIRI summit reportedly expected demand to remain broadly flat over the following 12 months. HIRI’s separate August 2026 forecast projected growth in the home-improvement products market, while NAHB’s February 2026 outlook forecast inflation-adjusted growth in remodeling activity. These views can coexist because they cover different measures, segments and forecast horizons; they should not be treated as interchangeable estimates of stock sales or earnings.
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| Measure | Reported outlook | Scope and qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Home-improvement products market | HIRI projected 2.6% growth in 2026, to $540.1 billion, compared with a revised $526.5 billion in 2025; it forecast average annual growth of 3.8% from 2027 to 2029. | HIRI forecast published in its August 2026 Economic Industry Update; products-market value, not a remodeling-activity measure. |
| Consumer spending | HIRI reported a 1.7% decline in 2025 and forecast a 3.7% rebound in 2026. | HIRI’s August 2026 update; consumer segment. |
| Professional spending | HIRI reported 6.9% growth in 2025 and forecast 1.0% growth in 2026. | HIRI’s August 2026 update; professional segment, with a much slower forecast growth rate than in 2025. |
| Remodeling activity | NAHB forecast growth of 3% in 2026 and 2% in 2027, in inflation-adjusted terms. | NAHB forecast published in February 2026; remodeling activity rather than the value of the home-improvement products market. |
The split between consumer and professional spending helps explain why a single headline demand figure can conceal different conditions across the market. HIRI’s forecast anticipated a consumer rebound after a down year but much slower professional-spending growth. Neither projection guarantees that a particular retailer will meet expectations: company results also depend on its sales mix, pricing, costs and execution.
What supports demand over the longer term?
Investing.com’s 2026 account points to longer homeowner tenure, an average U.S. housing-stock age of 44 years, average household equity of about $450,000 and roughly two decades of single-family home underbuilding. These are figures reported in that article; it does not provide the underlying datasets or full methodology for them. Separately, NAHB’s outlook describes aging homes and mortgage lock-in as structural tailwinds for remodeling.
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The practical implication is that near-term weakness does not necessarily mean homes need less work. Older properties require ongoing upkeep, and owners who remain in place may eventually undertake repairs or renovations they deferred. But long-term need is not the same as near-term spending: a household can postpone a project, choose a cheaper scope or direct money elsewhere even when the work remains necessary.
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Investing.com says Lowe’s technology chief described AI as augmenting employees rather than replacing them, and the article mentions possible back-office efficiencies for contractors. It does not report measured productivity gains or an earnings impact. AI is therefore a potential efficiency lever in this account, not demonstrated evidence that home-improvement companies’ profits have improved.
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What the evidence can—and cannot—say about the stocks
The explanation is a tension between cyclical restraint and durable repair needs: rates and affordability can delay discretionary work, while aging homes and longer tenure keep maintenance relevant. The cited forecasts also show that “demand” is not a single measure, with distinct outlooks for products, consumer spending, professional spending and remodeling activity.
Those industry trends alone do not support a buy-or-sell conclusion or a ranking of home-improvement stocks. The cited reporting does not give comparative stock returns, company-level exposure, valuations or margin data. Assessing a particular stock would require those measures in addition to the broad demand picture.
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