An economic outlook is a dated, assumption-dependent forecast—not a promise about what a house, building project, or mortgage will cost. In the September 2026 forecast from Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group, national home-price growth was expected to slow from 2.3% in 2026 to 1.0% in 2027, while the annual-average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was projected to rise from 6.5% to 6.7%. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) was still reporting material-price growth above 3% and persistent construction-labor shortages in February 2026.
Those figures help frame decisions, but they do not predict the price of a particular home or produce a bid for a particular project. Location, property condition, loan terms, scope, site conditions, contractor availability and timing can outweigh a national trend.
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What an economic outlook actually tells you
An economic outlook brings together expected conditions such as economic growth, inflation, employment, interest rates and housing activity. Analysts publish it for a specific date and horizon using assumptions about monetary policy, fiscal policy and other conditions. When those assumptions change, the forecast can change too.
Fannie Mae says its Economic and Strategic Research Group publishes monthly economic and housing forecasts and warns that estimates may change without notice and are not guaranteed to be accurate, current or suitable for every purpose. The Federal Reserve likewise describes its projections as participant views formed under individual assumptions about appropriate monetary policy, with substantial uncertainty around the results.
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For a homeowner, buyer or builder, the useful question is not “What will the market do?” It is “Which assumptions in this outlook affect my budget, and which risks are specific to my location or project?”
The September 2026 US outlook at a glance
The following figures are national forecasts or industry context, not observed results. Each number has a different measure and time basis.
| Indicator | Source and date | Figure | How to read it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real gross domestic product | Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research, September 11, 2026 | 2.0% in 2026 | Q4/Q4 forecast for real GDP growth |
| Consumer-price inflation | Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research, September 11, 2026 | 3.4% in 2026 | Q4/Q4 CPI forecast; rate inputs used data through August 31, 2026 |
| Federal funds rate | Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research, September 11, 2026 | 3.7% annual average in 2026 | Forecast for the policy rate, not a consumer mortgage quote |
| Home-price growth | Fannie Mae Housing Forecast, September 2026 | 2.3% in 2026; 1.0% in 2027 | Fannie Mae HPI change on a Q4/Q4 basis; it is not a forecast for every home |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate | Fannie Mae Housing Forecast, September 2026 | 6.5% average in 2026; 6.7% average in 2027 | Annual-average national forecast, based on rates through August 31, 2026 |
| Total home sales | Fannie Mae Housing Forecast, September 2026 | 4.692 million in 2026; 4.882 million in 2027 | Projected annual totals, shown in thousands in the underlying table; not realized counts |
| Housing starts | Fannie Mae Housing Forecast, September 2026 | 1.351 million in 2026; 1.327 million in 2027 | Projected annual totals, not completed homes |
| Residential building-material prices | NAHB outlook, February 2026 | Growth above 3% since June 2025 | Industry-level material-price context, not an all-in construction-cost index or project bid |
How the outlook can affect home prices
Slower growth is not the same as falling prices
Fannie Mae’s 2.3% HPI growth forecast for 2026 and 1.0% for 2027 describes a slower pace of national appreciation, not a nationwide price decline. The HPI is an index, so it does not tell you what a specific property will sell for. A city with limited land and strong employment may behave differently from a market with more listings or weaker demand.
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Home prices reflect the interaction of incomes, household formation, available listings, new construction, local employment, migration, taxes, insurance and credit conditions. A national forecast supplies background for those forces; it cannot quantify how much any one factor contributes in a particular neighborhood.
Mortgage affordability can support prices even when rates are high
Higher borrowing costs reduce the loan amount a household can support at a given monthly payment. That can limit bidding power and cause some owners to delay selling. If fewer owners list, a shortage of available homes can keep prices firm even while sales volumes remain subdued. Conversely, more listings or weaker local employment can put pressure on prices.
Sales and starts provide context, not a local inventory forecast
Fannie Mae projected 4.692 million total home sales in 2026 and 4.882 million in 2027, alongside 1.351 million housing starts in 2026 and 1.327 million in 2027. These are national annual projections. They do not say how many homes will be available in your town, whether a particular subdivision will proceed, or how quickly a local builder can obtain permits and materials.
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Will mortgage rates go down, and what could that mean for home prices?
Mortgage rates and the federal funds rate are different series
The federal funds rate is the Federal Reserve’s short-term policy rate. A 30-year fixed mortgage rate is a consumer borrowing rate influenced by longer-term bond yields, inflation expectations, lender pricing, credit risk and market conditions. Fannie Mae’s September economic forecast put the 2026 annual-average federal funds rate at 3.7%, while its housing forecast put the 2026 annual-average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.5%. Those figures are not interchangeable.
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The current forecast points to a higher 2027 annual average
Fannie Mae projected an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6.5% in 2026 and 6.7% in 2027. Because these are annual averages, a particular day’s quote can be above or below them. The forecast used interest-rate information through August 31, 2026; subsequent inflation, employment, fiscal or financial-market developments could change the path.
A lower rate can improve affordability without guaranteeing cheaper homes
If rates fall, the same monthly payment can support a larger loan, which may bring more buyers into the market. If supply does not increase as quickly, that additional purchasing power can lift prices. A buyer therefore needs to evaluate both the payment at today’s available rate and the price competition that a lower-rate environment could create.
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In NAHB’s February 2026 outlook, chief economist Robert Dietz said, “The housing outlook in 2026 is one of cautious optimism as builders contend with rising material and labor prices and policy uncertainty, while builders and buyers alike should benefit from anticipated fiscal and monetary easing that will moderate housing finance costs and mortgage rates.” He also said, “A sustained sub-6% mortgage rate will likely wait until 2027.” These are his attributed views from that February outlook, not a guaranteed rate level.
What the outlook means for construction costs
Materials are only one part of the budget
NAHB reported residential building-material price growth above 3% since June 2025. That information indicates continuing input pressure at the industry level, but it is not a percentage you can apply to the final price of an extension, renovation or new home. A project’s cost also includes labor, equipment, subcontractors, design, permits, site work, utilities, financing, insurance, waste, overhead and contingency.
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NAHB’s February 2026 outlook discussed persistent shortages of construction labor. Limited availability can raise wage and subcontractor costs, but it can also lengthen the time needed to start or complete work. A delayed project may face another round of material-price changes, additional temporary housing or financing expense, and rescheduling fees.
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Why a national material trend cannot replace a builder’s estimate
A local quote must reflect the actual drawings and specifications, site access, ground conditions, structural requirements, finish selections, local code, permit fees and the builder’s schedule. Ask whether allowances are fixed, how escalation is handled, which items are provisional, and what happens if a specified product is unavailable. Obtain a written scope and an itemized price rather than multiplying a national statistic by last year’s budget.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How buyers can use the outlook without overrelying on it
- Set a payment ceiling using an available quote. Use the interest rate, loan term, down payment, taxes, insurance, association dues and maintenance assumptions that apply to you. Treat a national annual-average forecast as context, not as a promised quote.
- Stress-test the purchase. Calculate the payment if the rate is higher, the appraisal is lower, taxes or insurance rise, or the home needs repairs. Keep cash reserves instead of using every dollar for the down payment.
- Separate price from financing. Compare the home’s price and condition independently from the loan’s interest rate. A lower rate does not automatically make an overpriced or under-maintained property affordable.
- Check local evidence. Review recent comparable sales, current listings, days on market, permits and employment conditions for the specific area. National forecasts cannot establish a neighborhood value.
- Decide what would change your timing. Write down the rate, payment, cash reserve and property requirements that make the purchase workable. This prevents a forecast headline from driving a decision that does not fit your finances.
How builders and renovators can use the outlook
Build a cost plan around the actual scope
- Obtain current subcontractor and supplier pricing for the location and specification.
- Identify long-lead items and confirm quoted validity periods.
- Price site work, utilities, permits, design, engineering, insurance, financing and contingency separately.
- Document allowances for finishes and appliances so a change in selection has a visible budget effect.
Protect the schedule
- Ask trades about crew availability before setting a start date.
- Order critical materials only after dimensions and selections are confirmed.
- Include float for inspections, weather, delivery delays and rework.
- Put escalation, substitution and delay responsibilities in the contract.
Test the project under more than one rate and cost case
For a build-to-sell project, model sales prices below the base case, a slower absorption period and higher financing costs. For an owner-occupied build, model the construction loan, the permanent mortgage, taxes, insurance and the cost of temporary accommodation. The purpose is not to predict the market precisely; it is to discover which changes would make the project unaffordable before work begins.
How to compare economic forecasts responsibly
Two outlooks can appear to disagree while measuring different things. Check these five attributes before drawing a conclusion:
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Random freezes, missing sound and display glitches usually trace back to one bad driver. Find and replace yours safely.Free scan · under a minute- Publication date and information cutoff: a newer forecast may incorporate data that an older one did not. Fannie Mae’s September housing forecast used rates observed through August 31, 2026.
- Measure: confirm whether the number is an HPI, a median sale price, a 30-year fixed rate, the federal funds rate, a material-price measure or a housing-activity series.
- Time basis: distinguish Q4/Q4 changes, annual averages and projected annual totals. They cannot be compared as if they were the same period.
- Assumptions and uncertainty: identify the policy, inflation, growth and market assumptions. The Federal Reserve states, “Considerable uncertainty attends these projections, however.”
- Geography and use: national forecasts provide context. They do not establish a result for an individual city, property, contractor or building site.
A practical decision framework
| Your situation | Useful outlook information | Information you still need |
|---|---|---|
| Buying an existing home | Mortgage-rate direction, national price-growth context and broad sales conditions | Local comparable sales, property inspection, taxes, insurance, loan estimate and cash reserves |
| Building a new home | Material-price pressure, labor availability, mortgage-rate assumptions and housing-start context | Plans, site investigation, permits, local bids, allowances, schedule and contract protections |
| Renovating | Industry material and labor conditions that may affect supplier and trade availability | Measured scope, design, structural review, itemized quotes, contingency and temporary-living plan |
| Waiting for rates to change | Published scenarios and their dates, measures and assumptions | A payment you can afford now, refinancing eligibility later and the risk that prices or competition move while you wait |
The bottom line for a household or project owner
The September 2026 national picture combines slower projected home-price growth, an annual-average 30-year mortgage rate forecast that is slightly higher in 2027 than in 2026, subdued projected housing activity and continuing material and labor pressure. That combination can produce very different outcomes for different people: a buyer may face a manageable price but an expensive loan, a seller may benefit from limited supply, and a builder may have demand but insufficient labor or uncertain input costs.
Use the outlook to choose questions and stress tests, not to replace local evidence. For a purchase, rely on a current loan estimate and local comparable sales. For construction, rely on a defined scope, current local bids and a contract that addresses escalation and delays. Recheck the forecast’s date, measure, horizon and assumptions whenever new information changes the decision.
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