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U.S. duties on covered Canadian softwood lumber raise the cost of importing that material, but they do not translate into one automatic percentage increase at a lumberyard or on a home project. The amount depends on the Canadian exporter, the product’s tariff classification and coverage, the duty in force, and how suppliers pass costs through their contracts and margins.
The published sixth administrative-review rates include combined antidumping and countervailing duties of 47.59% for Canfor, 26.47% for West Fraser, and 35.16% for all other companies listed in the amended Canadian summary. A separate 10% Section 232 duty on covered softwood timber and lumber took effect on October 14, 2025. Those are import-duty rates, not proven retail price increases.
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Which U.S. duties apply to Canadian softwood lumber?
Three concepts matter when estimating exposure: antidumping duties, countervailing duties, and the separate Section 232 tariff. They can apply to covered Canadian softwood products at the border, but the exact outcome depends on whether the shipment falls within each order’s product scope and which exporter supplied it.
Antidumping duties
Antidumping (AD) duties address a finding that merchandise is being sold in the United States at less than fair value under U.S. trade law. Commerce calculates exporter-specific rates through administrative reviews. The rate is applied to the relevant customs value, not directly to the price printed on a retail shelf.
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Countervailing duties
Countervailing (CVD) duties address benefits that a foreign government is found to have provided to producers or exporters. Commerce announced the final sixth-review CVD rates on August 8, 2025. The rates ranged from 12.12% to 16.82%; the non-selected-company rate was 14.63%, which applies to most companies under the review framework.
Section 232
A separate 10% ad valorem Section 232 duty on covered softwood timber and lumber began October 14, 2025. The White House proclamation makes this an additional measure for covered imports. Whether it applies to a particular shipment depends on the proclamation’s definitions and the product’s tariff classification.
Because these measures have different legal bases and coverage rules, a contractor or homeowner should not simply add a headline rate to a store receipt. A shipment may be subject to one measure, more than one, or an exclusion, depending on its facts.
Published sixth-review rates by exporter
Global Affairs Canada’s summary of the amended sixth administrative review lists the following AD and CVD rates for the named exporters and the “all others” category. The combined column is the arithmetic sum of the two components shown in that summary.
| Exporter category | Amended AD rate | CVD rate | Combined AD/CVD rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canfor | 35.47% | 12.12% | 47.59% |
| West Fraser | 9.65% | 16.82% | 26.47% |
| All others | 20.53% | 14.63% | 35.16% |
These figures are not universal Canadian lumber rates. They identify the amended sixth-review results for the categories shown and apply only when the product is within the relevant order. Commerce’s August 8, 2025 release described final AD rates ranging from 9.65% to 35.53%. The Canadian summary reflects a later amendment to Canfor’s AD result, showing 35.47% in the table above.
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The 10% Section 232 duty is separate from these combined AD/CVD figures. If a shipment is covered by both regimes, the importer must follow the applicable customs calculation rules rather than treating the result as a guaranteed 57.59%, 36.47%, or 45.16% increase in a consumer’s price.
How an import duty can affect a board’s price
The direct chain is straightforward: a covered importer pays additional duty at entry, increasing the landed cost of the shipment. The importer may absorb that cost, renegotiate supply, change sources, or pass some or all of it to a distributor, retailer, contractor, or end customer.
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A simple illustration shows why the duty rate is not the same as a project-price increase. If a covered shipment had a customs value of $100,000, a 35.16% combined AD/CVD rate would represent $35,160 before considering any other applicable charge. A separate 10% measure, if applicable under the governing customs rules, would require its own calculation. This example is arithmetic only; it is not a quote, an assessment for a particular product, or a prediction of retail pricing.
The final price of a 2×4 or other softwood item also reflects freight, drying and grading, mill and distributor contracts, inventory purchased before a duty changed, retailer margins, local competition, and the cost of substitute species or suppliers. A retailer can hold a price while selling older inventory, while another may reprice immediately. The same duty can therefore produce different outcomes in different regions and weeks.
Why retail lumber prices do not rise by the same percentage
Supply and demand
Duties can reduce the volume of imported Canadian material offered at a given price. If builders and manufacturers still need the same volume, buyers may compete for domestic or non-Canadian supply, putting upward pressure on those alternatives as well. If demand weakens, inventories build, or mills increase output, the effect can be smaller.
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Inventory and contracts
Large distributors often own inventory bought under earlier conditions. Fixed-price supply contracts can delay the effect, while short-term purchases can reflect it quickly. A project quoted in one month may therefore have a different lumber allowance from an otherwise identical project quoted later.
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“Softwood lumber” is not one uniform product. Dimensions, grades, species, finishing, end use, and tariff classification can determine whether an item is covered. A duty affecting a particular Canadian product does not prove that every board in a home-center aisle carries the same burden.
Margins and competition
Importers, wholesalers, retailers, and contractors make separate pricing decisions. Each may absorb part of a cost to protect volume or pass it through to preserve margin. Local competition and delivery distance can matter as much as the border charge for a small residential order.
Canada’s role in the U.S. lumber supply
The National Association of Home Builders says Canada accounts for roughly 85% of U.S. softwood lumber imports. That share explains why Canadian trade measures can influence the broader U.S. market even when a homeowner buys domestically produced boards. Buyers may shift among Canadian, U.S., and other imported sources, changing prices across the market rather than isolating the effect to clearly labeled Canadian stock.
The 85% figure describes Canada’s share of U.S. softwood lumber imports, not 85% of all lumber used in U.S. construction and not the share of any particular store’s inventory. It should not be used to multiply a project’s lumber bill by a tariff rate.
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What the $10,900-per-home estimate means
In its April 2025 Housing Market Index survey, NAHB reported that builders estimated a typical tariff-related cost effect of $10,900 per home. That is a builder-survey estimate concerning recent tariff actions broadly. It is not a measured causal estimate of the Canadian softwood lumber duties alone, and it is not a guaranteed surcharge on every new home.
A new home includes many tariff-sensitive inputs and contractual decisions beyond Canadian softwood lumber. The survey result is useful context for the scale builders believed tariff actions could create, but it cannot be converted into a precise allowance for a deck, addition, remodel, or small framing project.
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The most reliable response to uncertain duty pass-through is a current, local quote for the exact material and delivery conditions. Use this process before ordering:
- Define the bill of materials. List dimensions, species, grade, treatment, lengths, quantities, fasteners, and delivery. A quote for “framing lumber” is too broad for a meaningful comparison.
- Ask whether the supplier’s price is delivered. Separate material, freight, unloading, taxes, and other fees. A lower board price can be offset by delivery or handling.
- Request the supplier’s product and origin information. Ask whether the quoted material is Canadian, domestic, or mixed, and whether the supplier believes the product is within any applicable trade-order or Section 232 scope. The supplier or customs specialist, not a homeowner, should make the legal classification.
- Obtain at least two quotes on the same specification. Keep the quantity, grade, delivery date, and payment terms identical. Otherwise, a price difference may reflect a different product rather than a duty effect.
- Check quote validity and escalation language. Ask how long the price is firm, whether the supplier can substitute a comparable grade, and what happens if a policy changes before delivery.
- Separate lumber from labor. A tariff affects material sourcing, while labor, equipment, permits, waste, and site conditions have different drivers. Keeping them separate makes a change easier to diagnose.
- Reconfirm before ordering. For a project scheduled weeks or months ahead, refresh the quote and verify availability. Do not assume that a percentage from a news report remains the percentage in a later invoice.
Implications for common home projects
Framing an addition or new room
Framing uses large quantities of dimensional lumber, so a change in delivered material pricing can materially affect the estimate. The practical question is the supplier’s current price for the specified studs, plates, beams, and sheathing—not the nominal AD/CVD rate by itself. Ask the contractor to identify which line items are allowances and which are fixed-price commitments.
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Deck projects may combine structural softwood, treated lumber, decking boards, railings, and hardware from different supply chains. Some components may not be covered by the same trade measures. Compare the complete delivered package and confirm that any proposed substitution meets the required span, treatment, durability, and code specifications.
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Smaller projects can be affected by minimum delivery charges, local inventory, and contractor purchasing practices more than by the duty on one bundle of boards. A contractor who already has material on hand may quote differently from a homeowner buying a small quantity at retail. Obtain a project-specific price rather than applying a national tariff percentage.
Sixth-review rates versus the seventh review
Administrative reviews are conducted annually at the request of an interested party after an antidumping or countervailing-duty order is in effect, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce’s August 8, 2025 release. Review results can change the cash-deposit or assessment framework for future entries, so the date and status of a rate matter.
Global Affairs Canada’s consolidated page describes seventh-review preliminary and post-preliminary rates and states that those results do not take effect unless finalized. It expected final results no earlier than August 2026, or October 2026 if the review were fully extended. The available status record dated October 10, 2026 did not confirm a final seventh-review decision. Treat those preliminary figures as non-effective until an official final decision and customs instructions say otherwise.
For a purchase or contract, ask which final rate and effective date the importer is using. A preliminary number should not be presented as the rate on a current shipment.
What can and cannot be concluded about project costs
It is reasonable to say that duties increase the import cost of covered Canadian lumber and can contribute to higher market prices, altered sourcing, or tighter availability. It is not supported to say that a 47.59% combined rate makes a retail board 47.59% more expensive, or that every homeowner’s project rises by a fixed percentage.
No established dollar or percentage figure isolates the change in U.S. retail softwood lumber prices caused specifically by these duties. The strongest practical measure for a homeowner is a like-for-like local quote, checked close to the purchase date and documented with the material’s specification, origin when available, delivery terms, and price-validity period.
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