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BETTESWORTHConstruction
benefit-cost analysis

How to Assess the Economic Impact of Overlapping Highway Construction Projects

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The defensible way to measure overlapping highway projects is to model them as one changing transportation network, not as separate project estimates added together. Establish a no-overlap baseline, map every shared corridor, detour, junction, access point and construction period, estimate incremental delay and diversion, value supported user and safety effects, examine business access separately, and compare the concurrent schedule with feasible coordination options. The result should show the size, timing, location and distribution of impacts—and the assumptions that drive them.

There is no universal dollar figure for “overlap.” A project-specific estimate requires actual schedules, work-zone capacities, traffic demand, diversion routes, vehicle mix, valuation assumptions, safety data and local business evidence.

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What counts as an economic impact?

Overlapping work creates an economic impact when simultaneous restrictions change how people, freight and emergency services move, reach destinations or operate businesses. The relevant area is defined by traffic interaction rather than by project limits. Two sites several miles apart can interact if one blocks the other’s detour, feeds the same interchange, constrains a shared arterial or changes access to the same commercial district.

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Measure the incremental effect of the overlapping scenario against a clearly defined counterfactual. Depending on the decision, the counterfactual may be normal operation without the projects, each project built at a different time, or a coordinated construction plan. Keep demand, valuation, safety assumptions and other inputs consistent between scenarios so that the difference reflects overlap rather than a change in the analytical rules.

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  • Road-user effects: additional travel time, queueing, unreliable trips, diverted vehicle-miles, fuel and other vehicle operating costs.
  • Safety effects: changes in exposure and risk at work zones, detours, intersections and merging locations, estimated with appropriate local safety methods.
  • Business and community effects: changed access, delivery conditions, customer circulation, transit connections and emergency response.
  • Agency and contractor effects: costs of staging, traffic control, acceleration, coordination, utility relocation or schedule changes.
  • Distributional effects: who bears the burden—freight, commuters, local trips, businesses, emergency services or particular neighborhoods—and when.

U.S. Department of Transportation Benefit-Cost Analysis Guidance (2025 Update) treats work-zone effects as disbenefits: they are negative benefits that should be monetized with the guidance’s methods and assigned to the years or construction periods in which they occur. Do not hide construction-period losses inside a project’s long-term benefits.

1. Define the decision and the counterfactual

Write the decision question before selecting a model. A project-selection study, a construction-scheduling decision and a public communication exercise can use different levels of detail and different performance measures.

Typical decision questions

  • Should two projects proceed concurrently, or should one be staggered?
  • Would combining compatible highway and utility work avoid a second disruption?
  • Which staging or detour plan minimizes network delay while preserving access?
  • Does an acceleration premium justify a shorter period of severe restriction?
  • What impacts must be disclosed for a significant project or transportation management plan?

Write the baseline in operational terms

State the baseline network, demand, travel patterns, transit service, construction status and operating assumptions. If the question is coordination, compare the coordinated or staggered alternative with the concurrent-work case. If the question is whether to build, compare each construction scenario with the same network without the relevant simultaneous restrictions. A baseline that quietly changes traffic growth, capacity or detour availability will produce a misleading “overlap” effect.

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FHWA’s work-zone analysis framework recommends evaluating alternatives through a decision framework tied to traffic-analysis results and mitigation. Record the decision horizon, construction years, analysis periods and whether the estimate is intended for benefit-cost analysis, design, scheduling or communication.

2. Map the combined influence area and time window

Create one map and one dated timeline for all potentially interacting work. Start with the principal corridor, then expand to facilities that carry diverted traffic or provide access to affected destinations.

Include more than adjacent work sites

  • Parallel and cross-town detour routes, bridges, frontage roads and transit corridors.
  • Interchanges, signalized intersections, ramps and bottlenecks that receive diverted trips.
  • Hospitals, schools, industrial sites, freight terminals, emergency routes and major developments.
  • Business districts whose entrances, deliveries or customer circulation change.
  • Projects on other modes or facilities that alter the available alternatives.
  • Seasonal routes, special-event venues and weather-sensitive links.

Use a screening rule and document it. Retain a project when it affects a shared route, bottleneck, access point or time period; do not assume that every project in the same region interacts. FHWA’s significant-project guidance emphasizes that cumulative effects can extend beyond a work site to other corridors, modes and the regional network.

Build a stage-by-stage timeline

For every retained project, mark the start and end of each stage, lane and ramp restriction, full closure, work hour, weekend operation and planned reopening. Add seasonal demand, school calendars, recurring congestion, special events, weather exposure and known incidents. A one-week full closure and a six-month lane reduction may have different network consequences even when they affect the same pavement area.

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Timeline item What to record Why it matters
Construction stage Dates, work hours, lane arrangement, ramp status and traffic-control plan Determines capacity and the hours in which restrictions overlap
Demand condition Peak and off-peak volumes, seasonal factors, freight and special events Determines how quickly queues and diversion develop
Network condition Other projects, incidents, transit availability and detour capacity Determines whether an alternative route can absorb traffic
Access condition Driveway, delivery, pedestrian, bicycle, transit and emergency access Captures effects that a corridor speed measure can miss

3. Describe each construction scenario consistently

Create a project record for every scenario, then combine the records into the network model or screening worksheet. At minimum, record:

  • Location, limits, nearby junctions and affected developments.
  • Number of open lanes, work-zone capacity, shoulder use, ramp closures and traffic-control method.
  • Construction staging, start and end windows, work hours and total duration.
  • Feasible detours, their capacities and any restrictions on trucks, transit or emergency vehicles.
  • Expected demand by period and vehicle class.
  • Recurring congestion, non-recurring incidents, seasonal traffic and special events.
  • Weather sensitivity, inspection or maintenance constraints and reliability of the schedule.
  • Available alternate modes and changes to transit, walking or cycling connections.

Describe the concurrent case, each staggered or coordinated case, and any alternative staging or detour plan using the same fields. This makes it possible to attribute a result to a schedule, a capacity change or a detour choice instead of to an unexplained difference in inputs.

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4. Estimate traffic and mobility effects at the right level

Match the method to the complexity and consequence of the decision. A transparent screening calculation may be sufficient early in planning; simultaneous restrictions, substantial diversion, queues that spill into junctions or changing stages generally require a network model or simulation.

Analysis level Appropriate use Outputs and limitations
Qualitative screening Early planning when projects are clearly independent or data are sparse Interaction map, risk ranking and data needs; does not establish a dollar impact
Traffic calculations Simple lane reductions, known demand and stable detours Volumes, speeds, capacity, delay and queue estimates at defined locations and periods
Network model Multiple routes, diversion, shared interchanges or competing detours Route shifts, travel time, VMT, junction effects and destination access across the study area
Microsimulation or other detailed simulation Complex staging, queue spillback, merging, signal interaction or short-duration closures Time-varying queues and operational detail; requires careful calibration and scenario control

Set performance measures before running scenarios

At each relevant period and location, compare the overlapping case with the baseline and alternatives using measures such as:

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  • Vehicle volumes, speeds and person or vehicle travel time.
  • Average and maximum queue length, queue duration and spillback into upstream junctions.
  • Vehicle-miles traveled on the original and alternate routes.
  • Trip reliability, if the available data and method support a defensible estimate.
  • Travel times for freight, transit, emergency and local-access trips where they differ from through traffic.
  • Access conditions for businesses, developments, residences and public facilities.
  • Safety exposure and operational conflicts at work zones, detours and intersections.

Define thresholds in advance—for example, a maximum acceptable queue spillback or emergency-route delay—and state whether a threshold is a decision rule or only a reporting reference. FHWA advises considering corridor, network and regional mobility, safety, nearby facilities, affected businesses and concurrent projects rather than relying on a single work-zone location.

5. Convert road-user effects into economic values

Incremental travel time

For each analysis period, calculate the additional time caused by overlap rather than total time in the construction scenario:

Incremental person or vehicle hours = (scenario travel time − baseline travel time) × affected trips.

Use the appropriate unit for the traffic estimate. If the model reports vehicle hours and the valuation is per person hour, apply occupancy by trip purpose or vehicle class and document the source. If it reports person hours, do not multiply by occupancy again. Apply a stated financial value of travel time to the affected hours, with separate values where the adopted guidance distinguishes travel purposes or vehicle types.

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Report the result by construction period and geography. A recurring weekday delay, a weekend closure and a seasonal event should not be merged into an undated total because the timing affects both valuation and who experiences the burden.

Vehicle operating costs and diverted VMT

Estimate supported incremental vehicle operating costs from additional distance, stop-and-go operation, fuel use, maintenance or other adopted unit costs. A common structure is:

Incremental operating cost = additional vehicle-miles by class × documented cost per mile, adjusted for the relevant operating condition.

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Keep the distance effect separate from travel-time valuation and check that the adopted cost basis does not already include the same delay or fuel component. Report diverted VMT even when a monetary value is not supportable; it shows where the network burden moves.

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Safety effects

Analyze changes in crashes, conflict exposure or risk with suitable local crash, work-zone safety or network-safety methods and data. Do not infer a crash-cost figure from delay, queue length or traffic volume alone. State the safety method, exposure period, affected facilities and uncertainty. If no defensible safety estimate is available, report the operational change and the evidence limitation rather than assigning an invented dollar value.

Count each effect once

Make an accounting table that identifies the source of every monetized term. For example, do not add a delay value that already includes fuel consumption to a separate fuel estimate, and do not count the same diverted trip in two overlapping project totals. Attribute costs to projects only after calculating the combined network result; otherwise, project-level sums can exceed the actual system effect.

Effect Required evidence Reporting treatment
Travel time Baseline and scenario times, affected trips, occupancy or vehicle class, value of time Monetize incremental hours by period and location
Vehicle operating cost Incremental VMT or operating time, vehicle mix and documented unit costs Keep distance and delay components transparent
Safety Local crash or safety data and a suitable analytical method Monetize only when supported; otherwise report exposure and limits
Business access Access changes, affected establishments, deliveries and local revenue evidence Report direct access effects and any supported local estimate separately

6. Assess business access and local economic exposure separately

A traffic model can show that vehicles divert, but diversion alone does not prove an equal percentage loss in business sales. Identify businesses and developments exposed to closures, driveway changes, turning restrictions, parking changes, delivery delays or reduced visibility. Report access and mobility effects directly even when a sales estimate is not possible.

Use local evidence for revenue estimates

Where a revenue estimate is needed, combine the modeled diversion or access change with local evidence about businesses exposed and the share of revenue associated with passing motorists. Potential evidence includes business surveys, representative sales records, delivery data, customer-origin information and documented access conditions. State the coverage and limitations of the evidence.

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FHWA describes pairing estimated diverted traffic with projected revenue generated by passing motorists as one way to inform a local economic estimate. The long-term-closure example on Louis Lake Road in Fremont County, Wyoming, illustrates a method, not a transferable effect size. Do not apply its outcome to another corridor without comparable local conditions.

Separate access from regional productivity

Lost or delayed customer access, freight deliveries, employee travel and emergency response are different channels. A business-access section should identify which channel is affected, for how long, and whether an alternative entrance or route remains usable. Avoid adding a modeled traffic-delay value to a sales-loss estimate that already reflects the same customer trips unless the overlap is explicitly removed.

7. Compare concurrent, staggered and coordinated options

Use the same demand, network and valuation assumptions for every option. At minimum, compare the following cases.

Alternative What it represents Questions to test
Concurrent work Projects proceed during overlapping restrictions Where do queues, diversion and access failures concentrate, and for how long?
Staggered schedule One project shifts so the restrictions do not overlap How much user delay and disruption is avoided, and what agency or contractor cost does the shift create?
Combined or accelerated work Compatible work is combined or duration is shortened Does a shorter, more intense restriction reduce total disruption enough to justify acceleration and capacity requirements?
Alternative staging or detour Lane arrangements, work hours, routes or traffic operations change Does the plan protect bottlenecks, emergency access and businesses without transferring unacceptable effects elsewhere?

Compare each option on total user delay and timing, vehicle operating costs, diverted VMT, safety exposure, business and community access, emergency service access, agency or contract implementation cost, total duration, number of disruption episodes, uncertainty and distribution. A schedule that lowers average delay but creates an unacceptable emergency-route restriction may not be preferable.

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Mitigation options to test

  • Shift start dates or work hours to remove a critical overlap.
  • Sequence projects around the capacity of a shared detour or interchange.
  • Combine compatible highway, utility or drainage work to avoid repeated closures.
  • Change staging, lane widths, ramp treatment or temporary traffic control.
  • Use travel-demand management, transit support, incident response or traffic operations.
  • Provide clear public information, business-access signing and delivery coordination.

FHWA recommends coordinating, sequencing and scheduling projects to reduce delay and business or community impacts, while recognizing that local engineering, safety, contract and schedule constraints determine what is feasible. Evaluate the mitigation cost and implementation risk rather than assuming coordination is free.

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8. Show uncertainty and who bears the effects

A single total conceals the assumptions most likely to change the decision. Present a base case and sensitivity tests for:

  • Construction start and completion dates, work hours and stage duration.
  • Work-zone capacity, lane availability and incident or weather conditions.
  • Traffic demand, freight share, occupancy and route-choice behavior.
  • Capacity and availability of each detour or alternate mode.
  • Value of travel time and vehicle operating-cost assumptions.
  • Business exposure, passing-motorist revenue and access-response assumptions.
  • Safety exposure, crash rates and the treatment of uncertainty.

Use ranges or scenario results when the evidence supports them, and explain which variables drive the spread. Label modeled values, observed values, engineering assumptions and stakeholder-provided information separately.

Report distribution, not only an aggregate

Break results out by through-travelers, freight, local trips, transit users, businesses, emergency services and affected communities where the data permit. Map locations of delay, queue spillback, diverted VMT and access changes. A regional average can look modest while a small commercial district or emergency route experiences a severe, concentrated effect.

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9. Assemble the data and maintain the estimate

A defensible project estimate needs more than a project list. Collect the following before monetizing results:

  • Project limits, construction stages, lane and ramp capacities, traffic-control plans and dated schedules.
  • Traffic counts or validated demand by time period, vehicle class, origin-destination pattern and season.
  • Feasible diversion routes, capacities, restrictions and travel-time data.
  • Existing and expected transit, pedestrian, bicycle, emergency and freight conditions.
  • Intersections, interchanges, businesses, developments and public facilities exposed to changed access.
  • Local safety data and the selected crash or risk-analysis method.
  • Adopted values of travel time, vehicle operating costs and any discounting or benefit-cost conventions.
  • Business-access and revenue evidence, including its geographic and temporal coverage.

Refresh the analysis whenever project dates, staging, capacity, detours or nearby project lists change. Overlap status is not permanent: a small schedule shift can remove an interaction, create one at a different bottleneck or move the peak burden to another season.

10. A practical calculation and reporting sequence

The following sequence keeps the analysis auditable while allowing the level of modeling to grow as the decision becomes more consequential.

  1. Write the decision statement. Name the alternatives, construction periods, geography and decision date.
  2. Define the counterfactual. Use the same demand and network assumptions without the relevant simultaneous restrictions, or use the agreed staggered or coordinated case.
  3. Screen the project universe. Retain projects sharing a route, bottleneck, access point or time period; document exclusions.
  4. Build the stage timeline and network map. Add detours, transit, emergency routes, businesses, special events and seasonal conditions.
  5. Specify capacity and demand. Record lane closures, work-zone capacity, traffic-control rules and demand by analysis period.
  6. Estimate mobility changes. Use screening, calculations, a network model or simulation as complexity warrants; save baseline and scenario outputs.
  7. Calculate incremental effects. Derive added hours, VMT, operating costs and supported safety measures relative to the counterfactual.
  8. Monetize transparently. Apply documented values, assign impacts to construction periods and check for double counting.
  9. Analyze local access. Identify businesses and facilities, then use local evidence before estimating any revenue effect.
  10. Test coordination and mitigation. Compare concurrent, staggered, combined, accelerated and alternative-staging cases on common measures.
  11. Run sensitivity and distribution checks. Show the assumptions that change the result and who bears each category of impact.
  12. Publish an update rule. Specify when a schedule, stage, detour or nearby project change requires reanalysis.

Common errors and how to correct them

Adding project totals without a combined model

Problem: Each project is analyzed independently and the totals are added, even though both affect the same detour or queue.

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Correction: Model the shared network first, then attribute contributions using controlled scenario comparisons.

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Using project boundaries as the study boundary

Problem: The analysis omits a parallel road, interchange, transit link or business district that absorbs diverted trips.

Correction: Follow traffic interaction, shared alternatives and access changes; expand to corridor, network or regional scale when needed.

Treating traffic loss as sales loss

Problem: A modeled traffic decline is converted directly into an equal percentage revenue decline.

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Correction: Report access directly and use local evidence about passing-motorist revenue and business exposure for any sales estimate.

Assigning a safety dollar value from delay

Problem: A queue or volume change is treated as a crash-cost estimate without a safety method.

Correction: Use local crash or safety analysis, or report the exposure change without unsupported monetization.

Ignoring timing

Problem: A short closure during a peak season is averaged with low-demand periods into one annual number.

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Correction: Keep results by construction period, day type and location, then aggregate only after the detailed effects are visible.

Failing to update after schedule changes

Problem: A dated overlap assessment remains in use after staging, dates or detours change.

Correction: Define trigger points for reanalysis and rerun the combined scenario whenever an interaction may be created or removed.

What a decision-ready report should contain

A useful report lets a reviewer reproduce the comparison and understand its limits. Include:

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  • The decision, counterfactual, alternatives and analysis date.
  • A map of the combined influence area and a stage-by-stage timeline.
  • Project input tables for capacities, restrictions, demand, detours and access.
  • Model choice, calibration or screening logic, performance measures and thresholds.
  • Baseline and scenario mobility results by period and location.
  • Separate calculations for travel time, vehicle operating costs, safety and business access.
  • A table showing which effects are monetized, which are reported qualitatively and why.
  • Comparison of concurrent, staggered, combined or accelerated, and alternative-staging options.
  • Sensitivity ranges, data gaps, model limitations and distribution of effects.
  • Mitigation actions, responsible parties, implementation constraints and the schedule for updates.

FHWA frames the central question this way: what are the cumulative work-zone impacts of multiple road projects taking place at the same time on transportation-system safety and mobility? A complete economic assessment answers that question at the scale where traffic and access actually interact, then shows which scheduling or design decisions can change the outcome.

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